我国地方债货币化路径研究——基于存量流量一致分析框架  

Research on the Path of Local Government Debt Monetization--Based on the Stock and Flow Consistent Model

作　　者：张圣明 刘锡良[1] Zhang Shengming;Liu Xiliang

机构地区：[1]西南财经大学中国金融研究院

出　　处：《财经科学》2025年第2期16-32,共17页Finance & Economics

基　　金：国家社科基金重大项目“中国地方政府债务与金融稳定性研究”(20&ZD081)的资助。

摘　　要：中央提出“制定实施一揽子化债方案”以来,地方债风险有所缓释,但在当前中国超常规逆周期调节框架下的地方政府高负债率和债务率,使地方经济增长与地方债务化解成为两难选择。本文基于记账式信用货币的现代货币理论(以下简称MMT)分析视角,构建了两个包括央地两级政府的六部门存流量一致模型,分别模拟比较了在积极财政政策冲击下的信用贷款创造货币和吞吐国债创造货币这两种货币化路径的宏观政策取向一致性。研究发现,吞吐国债创造货币框架货币化路径具有更好的宏观政策取向一致性,可更好兼顾经济增长与债务化解,是我国地方债货币化的优选路径。Since the meeting of the CPBCC proposed the"implementation of a package of debt solutions",although the risk of local government debt has been released,in current China,in the context of the high debt ratio and liability ratio of local government under the framework of unconventional countercyclical adjustment,growth and debt reduction become a dilemma.This paper,from the perspective of modern monetary theory of credit money,built two stock-flow consistent models of six departments including central government and local government.It dynamically simulated the impulse response to governments purchase,liquidity and inflation shocks under the framework of private money and overdraft systems,inside and outside money respectively,theoretically explored the optimal path of local debt monetization,based on the consistency of macro-control policy orientation.then this paper gives some suggestions on the path of monetizing local government debt.

关 键 词：债务货币化 现代货币理论 存流量一致模型 宏观政策取向一致性 

分 类 号：F832.5[经济管理—金融学]