养老保险全国统筹:缴费基数下限存在降低空间吗——兼论渐进式延长最低缴费年限的影响  

National Coordination of Pension Insurance:Does Lower Limit of Contribution Base Have Lowering Space--On the Impacts of Extending the Minimum Payment Period

作　　者：魏晨雪 王卓睿 曾益[1] Wei Chenxue;Wang Zhuorui;Zeng Yi

机构地区：[1]中南财经政法大学公共管理学院

出　　处：《财经科学》2025年第2期105-118,共14页Finance & Economics

基　　金：国家自然科学基金青年项目“职工养老保险全国统筹对地方政府保费征缴行为的影响:机制探讨、实证检验与政策优化”(72304283)的资助。

摘　　要：为优化养老保险全国统筹制度,同时切实缓解养老保险缴费负担,本文着重对延长最低缴费年限与降低养老保险缴费基数下限两项政策之间的协同效应展开深入探究。通过充分借鉴江苏省、福建省、湖北省以及重庆市在降低养老保险缴费基数下限方面的历史实践经验,运用双重差分法与精算模型深入剖析这一举措对养老保险征缴、扩面效果以及基金运行状况所产生的影响,进而尝试回答在现行养老保险全国统筹制度框架下,缴费基数下限是否存在降低空间这一核心议题。本文运用2002—2022年省级面板数据研究发现:(1)降低缴费基数下限能使养老保险征缴率和扩面率分别提高8.7%和2.1%;(2)降低缴费基数下限能进一步使养老保险基金收入增加,并推动累计结余规模的扩大;(3)降低缴费基数下限与延长最低缴费年限两项政策协同施行优势显著,能有效改善全国统筹基金运行状况,抑制基金缺口扩大,增强地区间资金调节能力,减轻政府财政负担。因此,当前养老保险缴费基数下限具备降低空间,这一改革不仅能够与延长最低缴费年限发挥政策合力,还可以作为增强养老保险基金可持续性的有效手段,为养老保险全国统筹制度优化提供新的思路。To optimize the national overall planning system of endowment insurance and effectively alleviate the payment burden of endowment insurance,this paper focuses on conducting an in-depth exploration of the synergistic effect between the two policies of extending the minimum payment period and lowering the lower limit of the endowment insurance payment base.By fully drawing on the historical practical experiences of Jiangsu Province,Fujian Province,Hubei Province and Chongqing Municipality in lowering the lower limit of the endowment insurance payment base,and using the difference-in-differences method and actuarial models to deeply analyze the impact of this measure on the expansion effect of endowment insurance collection and the operation status of the fund,this paper then attempts to answer the core issue of whether there is room for lowering the lower limit of the payment base under the current national overall planning system framework of endowment insurance.Using the provincial panel data from 2002 to2022,this paper finds that:(1)Lowering the lower limit of the payment base can increase the collection rate and expansion rate of endowment insurance by 8.7%and 2.1%respectively;(2)Lowering the lower limit of the payment base can further increase the income of the endowment insurance fund and promote the expansion of the cumulative balance scale;(3)The coordinated implementation of the two policies of lowering the lower limit of the payment base and extending the minimum payment period has significant advantages,which can effectively improve the operation status of the national overall planning fund,suppress the expansion of the fund gap,enhance the inter-regional fund adjustment capacity,and reduce the financial burden of the government.To sum up,there is currently room for lowering the lower limit of the endowment insurance payment base.This reform can not only exert a joint force with the policy of extending the minimum payment period,but also serve as an effective means to enhance the sustainability of the en

关 键 词：养老保险全国统筹 延长最低缴费年限 缴费基数下限 征缴率 基金可持续性 

分 类 号：F840.67[经济管理—保险]