面向代际发展的中国家庭生育决策  

Chinese Family Fertility Decisions in the Context of Intergenerational Development

作　　者：李静[1] Li Jing

机构地区：[1]安徽大学经济学院,合肥230601

出　　处：《中国社会科学》2025年第2期63-83,205,206,共23页Social Sciences in China

基　　金：国家社会科学基金一般项目“以共同富裕为导向增进劳动力要素市场化配置效率的路径研究”(23BJL008)阶段性成果。

摘　　要：以人口高质量发展支撑中国式现代化,需要科学把握人口发展内在规律,实现人口发展与经济社会发展相适配。将代际发展因素纳入家庭生育—教育决策模型后发现,在收入达到一定水平后,家庭会加大教育投入并形成对生育的替代,而推进代际向上发展有助于提升社会生育率。随后,就代际向上发展影响家庭生育意愿和实际生育数进行实证检验。进一步分析表明,不同收入水平家庭的生育—教育决策具有异质性,中等收入群体面临更大的教育投资竞争压力。完善新时代人口发展战略,需要更加重视引导和激励,积极延拓代际向上空间和畅通向上渠道,加快形成有利于人口高质量发展的公共服务体系、制度环境与社会氛围。In the pursuit of Chinese-style modernization driven by high-quality population development,it is necessary to scientifically capture the inherent laws of population development and align population growth with economic and social development.Incorporating intergenerational development factors into the family fertility-education decision-making model reveals that once income reaches a certain threshold,households tend to increase educational investment as a substitute for fertility.At the same time,promoting intergenerational upward mobility helps boost overall societal fertility rates.Empirical tests have shown how intergenerational upward mobility impacts both fertility intentions and actual fertility numbers.Further analysis demonstrates heterogeneity in fertility-education decision-making patternsacross income groups,with middle-income families experiencing greater pressure from educational investment competition.To optimize population development strategies in the neww era,it is crucial to introduce guidance and incentive mechanisms,proactively expand opportunities for intergenerational upward mobility,and accelerate the establishment of public service systems,institutional environments,and social conditions conducive to high-quality population development.

关 键 词：生育决策 生育意愿 代际向上发展 人口高质量发展 

分 类 号：C924.21[社会学—人口学] C913.11