疫情传播和物资配送交互影响的配送网络仿真  

Simulation of Distribution Network with Interaction Between Epidemic Spread and Material Distribution

作　　者：蒋阳升[1,2] 喻晴 朱娟秀 胡路[1,2] JIANG Yangsheng;YU Qing;ZHU Juanxiu;HU Lu(School of Transportation and Logistics,Southwest Jiaotong University,Chengdu 610031,China;National Engineering Laboratory of Integrated Transportation Big Data Application Technology,Southwest Jiaotong University,Chengdu 610031,China;School of Management,Xihua University,Chengdu 610039,China)

机构地区：[1]西南交通大学交通运输与物流学院,四川成都610031 [2]西南交通大学综合交通大数据应用技术国家工程实验室,四川成都610031 [3]西华大学管理学院,四川成都610039

出　　处：《综合运输》2025年第2期163-170,共8页China Transportation Review

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(62203367);四川省科学技术厅应用基础研究项目(2021YJ0066)。

摘　　要：为制定疫情下高效合理的应急物资配送方案,首先,将物资需求点和中转点抽象为轴辐式网络,分析物资配送各环节的排队现象;其次,基于C#语言和O2DES仿真框架,搭建考虑疫情传播和物资配送交互影响的轴辐式应急物资配送仿真模型,并自动生成更合理的物资配送方案;最后,以成都市为例,验证论文仿真系统的合理性,分析对比不同站点服务率和车队规模下的系统各项动态属性。结果表明,与不考虑交互影响相比,论文所提模型可以减少34.1%的感染者人数和13.8%的物资需求量;提升服务率有助于提高配送效率,在服务率较低时,缓解排队效果更显著;应综合评估车队规模对排队情况和最终感染人数的影响,可将最终感染人数降速放缓时节点作为车队规模的取值。the material demand points and transfer points into a hub-and-spoke network,and analyze the queuing phenomenon in each link of material distribution.Secondly,based on C#language and the O2DES simulation framework,a hub-and-spoke emergency material distribution simulation model considering the interaction between epidemic spread and material distribution is constructed,and a more reasonable material distribution plan is automatically generated.Finally,taking Chengdu as an example,the rationality of the simulation system in the paper is verified,and the dynamic properties of the system under different station service rates and fleet sizes are analyzed and compared.The results show that compared to not considering interaction effects,the model proposed in the paper can reduce the number of infected individuals by 34.1%and the demand for materials by 13.8%.Improving service rates helps to improve delivery efficiency,and alleviating queuing is more significant when service rates are low.The impact of fleet size on queuing conditions and the final number of infected individuals should be comprehensively evaluated,and the node at which the final number of infected individuals slows down can be used as the value for fleet size.

关 键 词：轴辐式网络 应急物资配送 传染病传播模型 排队网络 离散事件仿真 

分 类 号：U491[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]