美俄核博弈及其对国际核安全的影响  

The US-Russia Nuclear Game and Its Impact on International Nuclear Security

作　　者：王辉 Wang Hui

机构地区：[1]国际关系学院公共管理系

出　　处：《国家安全研究》2025年第1期103-118,158,共17页China security studies

摘　　要：核武器在大国竞争中仍然具有非常重要的战略价值,其不仅是保障国家自身安全的手段,也是核大国地缘政治博弈的工具。乌克兰危机爆发后,美国作为乌克兰的主要支持者,与俄罗斯围绕北约介入冲突、升级援乌武器性能、乌克兰攻击俄罗斯本土等问题展开激烈核博弈。美俄核威慑博弈不仅冲击了大国战略稳定,使双方共同遵守的“不可发生核战争”规范面临考验,而且强化了其他国家寻求核武器自保的动机,进一步削弱了国际核不扩散机制和军控体系,对乌克兰危机走向、欧洲安全以及国际核安全产生了深远影响。Nuclear weapons still have a significant strategic value in major-country competition,serving as a means to ensure a country's security and a tool for geopolitical rivalries among nuclear powers.Since the outbreak of the Ukraine crisis,a fierce nuclear game has emerged between the United States,the main supporter of Ukraine,and Russia over such issues as NATO's intervention in Ukraine,the upgrading of weapons supplied to Ukraine,and Ukrainian attacks on Russia's homeland.The nuclear deterrence game between the United States and Russia has undermined the strategic stability among the world's major countries,put the mutually binding norms prohibiting the use of nuclear weapons to the test,and fueled other countries'motivations to acquire nuclear weapons for self-defense.Consequently,the international nuclear non-proliferation and arms control regime has been further weakened,having a profound impact on the trajectory of the Ukraine crisis,Europe's security,and international nuclear security.

关 键 词：乌克兰危机 战略稳定 核威慑 核冲突 国际核安全 

分 类 号：D815.2[政治法律—国际关系] D871.2[政治法律—政治学] D851.2[政治法律—外交学]