武汉市极端降雨与气候因子的响应研究  

A study on the response of extreme rainfall in Wuhan to climatic factors

作　　者：车旭恒 朱君君 张立维 刘豪杰 周婉棋 杜鸿 CHE Xuheng;ZHU Junjun;ZHANG Liwei;LIU Haojie;ZHOU Wanqi;DU Hong(College of Resources and Environmental Science,South-Central Minzu University,Wuhan 430070,China)

机构地区：[1]中南民族大学资源与环境学院,武汉430070

出　　处：《中南民族大学学报(自然科学版)》2025年第3期319-326,共8页Journal of South-Central Minzu University(Natural Science Edition)

基　　金：湖北省自然科学基金资助项目(2023AFB782);中南民族大学大学生创新创业训练计划(20230100017)。

摘　　要：基于武汉市气象站1961―2020年数据,选取7个极端降雨指数,运用线性回归分析、Mann-Kendall检验法、滑动平均法、R/S分析法探究武汉市极端降水事件的时间演变特征,分析其对多种气候因子变化的响应.结果显示:(1)武汉市年降雨量变化范围为647~2009 mm,平均每年上升约4.46 mm.除SDII外,其他如PRCPTOT、RX1day、RX5day、R95p、R95d、R95c的极端降水指数均呈现明显的上升态势.(2)夏季平均降水量占全年降水量的42.81%,且以每年2.64 mm的速度增长,成为全年降水最为集中的季节.冬季降水占全年降水量仅9.78%,有1.68 mm‧a^(-1)的增长率.(3)除R95c、R95d外,其余极端降水指数如PRCPTOT、SDII、RX1day、RX5day、R95p均与平均温度呈正相关关系,四季平均降水量与四季累计日照时间之间存在显著负相关关系,且所有极端降水指数与全年累计日照时间也均呈现负相关关系.(4)通过R/S分析,预测8月、9月、11月和12月的降水量将呈现与过去相反的趋势,而1月、2月、3月、6月、7月和10月的降水量将维持之前的趋势.4月和5月的降水量则表现为随机游走.结果表明:60年以来武汉市极端降水量、极端降水天数都在显著增加,但每年降雨强度无明显增长,表明极端降水会更加集中,武汉市极端降水事件数量呈增加趋势.极端降水事件频率与气温呈正相关关系,与日照时间(辐射量)呈负相关关系.Based on the data from the meteorological station in Wuhan from 1961 to 2020,seven extreme rainfall indices were selected to explore the temporal evolution characteristics of extreme precipitation events in Wuhan by linear regression analysis,Mann-Kendall test,moving average method and R/S analysis,and the responses to shifts in diverse climatic factors were examined.The results showed that:(1)The annual precipitation in Wuhan ranged from 647 mm to 2009 mm,with an average increase of about 4.46 mm per year.Except for R95c,other extreme precipitation indices such as PRCPTOT,SDII,RX1day,RX5day,R95p,and R95d showed a significant upward trend.(2)The average summer precipitation accounted for 42.81%of the annual precipitation,with an annual growth rate of 2.64 mm,making it the season of most concentrated precipitation throughout the year.Winter precipitation accounted for only 9.78%of the annual precipitation,with a growth rate of 1.68 mm‧a^(-1).(3)Except for R95c and R95d,other extreme precipitation indices such as PRCPTOT,SDII,RX1day,RX5day,and R95p had a positive correlation with the average temperature.The cumulative sunshine duration in each season exhibited a notable negative correlation with the average precipitation in the corresponding period,and all kinds of extreme precipitation indices also showed a negative correlation with the annual cumulative sunshine duration.(4)Through R/S analysis,it was predicted that the precipitation in August,September,November,and December would show a trend opposite to the past,while the precipitation in January,February,March,June,July,and October would maintain the previous trends,and the precipitation in April and May showed a random walk trend.The results indicated that the extreme precipitation and the number of days with extreme precipitation in Wuhan had significantly increased in the past 60 years,but the yearly precipitation intensity did not significantly increase,indicating that extreme precipitation were more concentrated.The frequency of extreme precipitation ev

关 键 词：武汉 极端降雨 气温 日照 MK检验法 R/S分析法 

分 类 号：P426.61[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]