脱贫地区防返贫能力动力学分析  

Analysis of the dynamics of the ability to prevent the return of poverty in areas that have been lifted out of poverty

作　　者：张劲松[1,2] 舒双捷 安树庭 马林茂 ZHANG Jinsong;SHU Shuangjie;AN Shuting;MA Linmao(South-Central Minzu University,School of Management,Wuhan 430074,China;South-Central Minzu University,Research Center of Digital Development and Governance in Minority Areas,Wuhan 430074,China;South-Central Minzu University,School of Economy,Wuhan 430074,China)

机构地区：[1]中南民族大学管理学院,武汉430074 [2]中南民族大学民族地区数字化发展与治理研究中心,武汉430074 [3]中南民族大学经济学院,武汉430074

出　　处：《中南民族大学学报(自然科学版)》2025年第3期414-425,共12页Journal of South-Central Minzu University(Natural Science Edition)

基　　金：国家社科基金重点资助项目(19AGL029)。

摘　　要：2020年底我国取得了脱贫攻坚战的全面胜利,绝对贫困彻底消除,如何治理相对贫困、全面提升防返贫能力已成为脱贫地区当前阶段的首要目标.通过引入动力系统的概念,提出了一个综合考虑自然环境、社会支持和经济韧性等多个因素以分析防返贫能力的动力系统模型,从动态的角度研究脱贫地区防返贫能力演变过程,以深入研究不同因素对防返贫能力的影响机制及其稳定性分析.对恩施州的八个县市进行实证研究,来评估模型效果.研究结果表明:发展较好的地区抵御风险的能力未必更强,当受到较大范围公共风险事件的冲击时,出现防返贫能力下降的可能性更大.针对不同地区,需要建立灵活性强、适应性强的防返贫机制,以更好地适应外部环境的变化.At the end of 2020,China achieved a comprehensive victory in the battle against poverty,and absolute poverty was completely eliminated,so how to manage relative poverty and comprehensively improve the ability to prevent the return of poverty has become the primary goal of the current stage in the poverty-stricken areas.By introducing the concept of dynamical system,a dynamical system model for the analysis of the ability to prevent returning to poverty that comprehensively takes into account a number of factors such as the natural environment,social support and economic resilience is proposed to study the evolution process of the ability to prevent returning to poverty in poverty-stricken areas from the dynamic perspective,so as to deeply study the mechanism of the influence of different factors on the ability to prevent returning to poverty and its stability analysis.An empirical study is conducted on eight counties and cities in Enshi Prefecture to assess the effect of the model.The results of the study show that better-developed regions are not necessarily more resistant to risk,and when hit by a wide range of public risk events,the possibility of a decline in the ability to prevent poverty return is greater.Flexible and adaptive anti-return mechanisms need to be established for different regions to better adapt to changes in the external environment.

关 键 词：防返贫能力 脱贫攻坚 动力系统 稳定性分析 

分 类 号：N941.3[自然科学总论—系统科学] O193[理学—数学]