云南与东盟货物贸易网络动态演化特征及影响因素研究  

Dynamic Evolution Characteristics and Influencing Factors of Yunnan-ASEAN Goods Trade Network

作　　者：盛绿妍 白廷斌 钟艳 SHENG Lvyan;BAI Tingbin;ZHONG Yan(School of International Business,Yunnan University of Finance and Economics,School of Marxism,Yunnan University of Finance and Economics,Kunming 650221,Yunnan,China)

机构地区：[1]云南财经大学国际工商学院,云南昆明650221 [2]云南财经大学马克思主义学院,云南昆明650221

出　　处：《普洱学院学报》2025年第1期62-76,共15页Journal of Pu'er University

基　　金：云南财经大学研究生创新基金项目:中老铁路开通背景下云南与东盟货物贸易网络动态演变及影响因素研究(2024YUFEYC121)。

摘　　要：自中国-东盟自由贸易区建立以来,云南与东盟双边贸易得到较快发展,特别是中老铁路开通运营以来,云南充分发挥地理位置优势,与东盟的贸易联系日益紧密。通过对云南与东盟的货物贸易网络进行可视化处理、分析网络整体和节点特征,并进一步用QAP回归模型分析该贸易网络的影响因素,研究得出:网络贸易联系日益紧密,各主体间贸易往来的相互性也变得更强;新加坡、马来西亚、泰国和印度尼西亚是网络中贸易能力最强的四个主体;伴随着时间推移,各节点的差距逐渐缩小,贸易格局开始趋于均衡;网络的演化受到外商直接投资、地理距离、共同语言和人口总数四个因素的综合影响。Since the establishment of the China-ASEAN Free Trade Area,bilateral trade between Yunnan and ASEAN has developed rapidly,especially since the operation of the China-Laos Railway,Yunnan has fully leveraged its geographical advantage and the trade ties with ASEAN have become increasingly close.This paper visualizes and analyzes the network of goods trade between Yunnan and ASEAN,and further uses the QAP regression model to analyze the influencing factors of the trade network.The study finds that the trade ties between the two sides are becoming increasingly close,and the reciprocal trade between the various parties is becoming stronger;Singapore,Malaysia,Thailand,and Indonesia are the four entities with the strongest trade capabilities in the network;as time goes by,the gap between the nodes is gradually narrowing,and the allocation of resources is beginning to become more balanced;the evolution of the network is influenced by four factors:foreign direct investment,geographic distance,common language,and total population.

关 键 词：贸易网络 演化格局 社会网络分析 云南-东盟 

分 类 号：F752.8[经济管理—国际贸易]