内蒙古水稻生育期降雨预报准确度评价及节水灌溉策略分析  

Assessing rainfall forecast accuracy and optimizing water-saving irrigation strategies for rice production in Inner Mongolia

作　　者：程瑞苹 林恩 徐阳 肇志强 章策 胡旭铧 崔远来[1] 罗玉峰[1] CHENG Ruiping;LIN En;XU Yang;ZHAO Zhiqiang;ZHANG Ce;HU Xuhua;CUI Yuanai;LUO Yufeng(State Key Laboratory of Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering Science,Wuhan University,Wuhan 430072,China;Inner Mongolian Research Institute on Hydraulic Sciences,Hohhot 010060,China;Water Conservancy Bureau of Jalaid Banner,Inner Mongolia,Xing’an League 137600,China;Xing’an League Flood Control and Drought Relief Dispatching Center,Xing’an League 137400,China)

机构地区：[1]武汉大学水资源工程与调度全国重点实验室,武汉430072 [2]内蒙古自治区水利科学研究院,呼和浩特010060 [3]内蒙古扎赉特旗水利局,内蒙古兴安盟137600 [4]兴安盟防汛抗旱调度中心,内蒙古兴安盟137400

出　　处：《灌溉排水学报》2025年第3期44-51,共8页Journal of Irrigation and Drainage

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(52379046);内蒙古水利科技项目(NSK 2021-01)。

摘　　要：【目的】提高降雨资源利用效率,节约北方地区有限灌溉水源,并制定合理的灌溉制度。【方法】以内蒙古扎赉特旗、扎兰屯市及阿尔山市为研究区域,收集该区域2016—2020年单季稻生育期内未来7d降雨预报数据和实际降雨量数据,采用正确率、漏报率、空报率、TS评分(threat score)及ROC(receiver operating characteristic curve)等指标对降雨预报进行分析评价,在此基础上提出相应的节水灌溉策略。【结果】①水稻生育期天气预报正确率为69.5%,随着雨量级别的增大降雨TS评分提高,无雨、小雨的空报率和漏报率较高,大雨及以上级别降雨的空报率和漏报率较低。②1~7 d预见期命中率大于虚警率,可用于指导灌溉管理。③返青期降雨预报正确率为70.8%~76.7%,根据天气预报适量灌溉即可;分蘖初期、分蘖后期、拔节孕穗期以及抽穗开花期是水稻需水敏感期,预报无雨和小雨情况下,按照灌溉需水量灌溉即可,当预报降雨级别在中雨及以上时,应根据水稻实际情况减少灌水量、推迟灌溉甚至不灌溉;乳熟期和黄熟期是水稻需水非敏感时期,发生中雨以下级别降雨时按照灌溉需水量灌溉即可,中雨及以上级别的降雨预报准确度较高,适当灌溉保持合理水位或推迟灌溉即可。【结论】综上可知,与南方双季稻相比,北方水稻降雨次数少,雨量级别较大的降雨预报正准确度较高,可根据天气预报指导灌溉,提高水资源利用效率。【Objective】Accurate short-term rainfall forecasts are crucial for improving irrigation management and water use efficiency,especially in water-scarce regions.This study evaluates the accuracy of rainfall forecast models and investigates their potential to enhance irrigation strategies.【Method】The study was conducted in Jalaid Banner,Zhalantun City,and Arshan City in Inner Mongolia.Rainfall data from 2016 to 2020,collected during the reproduc-tive period of single-season rice,were used to develop and test the model.Metrics including accuracy,missing alarm rate,false alarm rate,TS score(threat score),and ROC(receiver operating characteristic curve)were used to evaluate the rainfall forecast accuracy.Based on the results,a water-saving irrigation strategy was proposed and analyzed.【Result】①The overall accuracy of rainfall forecasting during the rice growing season was 69.5%.The TS score increased with rainfall intensity.Both the false alarm rate and the missing alarm rate were higher when rainfall was less frequent.②The true positive rate consistently exceeded the false positive rate for 1 to 7 day rainfall forecasts,making it useful for irrigation management.③The accuracy of rainfall forecasts during the rice greening period ranged from 70.8% to 76.7%,which is sufficiently accurate for irrigation management.Rice was most sensitive to water stress during the early tillering,late tillering,jointing,booting,and heading-flowering stages.During these periods,irrigation was necessary if no or limited rainfall was forecasted to meet crop water requirements.Rice was less sensitive to water stress during the milk ripening and yellow ripening stages,with irrigation needed only if rainfall fell below a certain threshold.The forecasting model performed better for predicting moderate and heavy rainfall events.【Conclusion】Compared to double-season rice in Southern China,the rainfall frequency for sin-gle-season rice in Northern China is lower,with moderate and heavy rainfall events being forecasted with rea

关 键 词：北方水稻 降雨预报 节水 灌溉决策 

分 类 号：S274.1[农业科学—农业水土工程]