无定河流域水沙变化的驱动因素研究  

Research on the Driving Factors of Runoff and Sediment Changes in the Wuding River Basin

作　　者：孙雯 徐国策[1] Sun Wen;Xu Guoce(State Key Laboratory of Water Engineering Ecology and Environment in Arid Area,Xi’an University of Technology,Xi'an 710048,China)

机构地区：[1]西安理工大学旱区水工程生态环境全国重点实验室,西安710048

出　　处：《西北水电》2025年第1期14-21,共8页Northwest Hydropower

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(52022081)。

摘　　要：黄土高原土壤侵蚀严重,精细化分析典型流域水沙变化的驱动因素对流域管理具有重要意义。为了摸清黄土高原典型流域水沙变化的驱动因素,以黄土高原无定河流域为研究对象,采用双累积曲线、Pearson相关分析及PLS-SEM模型分析了多种因素对径流量、输沙量变化的影响。结果表明:1960-2018年径流量和输沙量呈显著下降趋势,径流量年均下降0.145亿m 3,输沙量年均下降141.32万t;NDVI从0.26增加至0.45,年增长率为0.47%。土地利用结构主要从耕地和未利用地转至林地和草地,林地、草地面积分别增加了42.45%、2.92%。与突变前相比,人类活动影响对径流量减少的贡献率分别为80.77%、111%;对输沙量减少的贡献率分别为97.74%、114.79%。降水、土地利用、植被覆盖等因子可解释无定河流域径流量、输沙量变化的67.2%、68.0%,其中降水和土地利用因素是无定河流域径流量、输沙量变化的主要驱动因素。研究结果量化了不同因素对径流量、输沙量的影响,可为无定河流域水土保持措施及可持续管理提供参考。Soil erosion is severe on the Loess Plateau.A refined analysis of the driving factors of the changes in water and sediment in typical river basins is of great significance for basin management.In order to clarify the driving factors of the changes in water and sediment in typical river basins on the Loess Plateau,the Wuding River Basin on the Loess Plateau was taken as the research object.The double cumulative curve,Pearson correlation analysis,and PLS-SEM model were used to analyze the impacts of various factors on the changes in runoff and sediment transport.The results show that from 1960 to 2018,the runoff and sediment transport showed a significant downward trend.The average annual decrease in runoff was 14.5 million cubic meters,and the average annual decrease in sediment transport was 141,320 tons.The NDVI increased from 0.26 to 0.45,with an annual growth rate of 0.47%.The land use structure mainly shifted from cultivated land and unused land to forest land and grassland.The areas of forest land and grassland increased by 42.45%and 2.92%,respectively.Compared with the period before the abrupt change,the contributions of human activities to the decrease in runoff were 80.77%and 111%,respectively;and the contributions to the decrease in sediment transport were 97.74%and 114.79%,respectively.Factors such as precipitation,land use,and vegetation coverage can explain 67.2%and 68.0%of the changes in runoff and sediment transport in the Wuding River Basin,respectively.Among them,precipitation and land use factors are the main driving factors for the changes in runoff and sediment transport in the Wuding River Basin.The research results quantify the impacts of different factors on runoff and sediment transport,which can provide a reference for soil and water conservation measures and sustainable management in the Wuding River Basin.

关 键 词：径流量 输沙量 驱动因素 PLS-SEM 水土保持 无定河 

分 类 号：S157.1[农业科学—土壤学]