黄河下游滩区村庄搬迁安置适宜性评价及情景模拟  

Suitability Evaluation and Scenario Simulation of Village Relocation and Resettlement in the Floodplain Area of the Lower Reaches of the Yellow River

作　　者：裴春营 吴锋[2] 郭昭 庞晓峰 郑斌 孙仲秋 Pei Chunying;Wu Feng;Guo Zhao;Pang Xiaofeng;Zheng Bin;Sun Zhongqiu(Xi'an Branch of GEOVIS Digital Earth Hefei Co.,Ltd.,Xi'an 710054,China;Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100101,China;Dongguan Urban Construction Planning and Design Institute,Dongguan 523001,China;Shaanxi Fundamental Geographic Information Center,Ministry of Natural Resources,Xi'an 710054,China;Harbin Radio Management Office,Department of Industry and Information Technology of Heilongjiang Province,Harbin 150001,China;Changchun Institute of Technology,Changchun 130000,China)

机构地区：[1]中科星图数字地球合肥有限公司西安分公司,西安710054 [2]中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所,北京100101 [3]东莞市城建规划设计院,广东东莞523001 [4]自然资源部陕西基础地理信息中心,西安710054 [5]黑龙江省工业和信息化厅哈尔滨无线电管理处,哈尔滨150001 [6]长春工程学院,长春130000

出　　处：《西北水电》2025年第1期35-43,57,共10页Northwest Hydropower

基　　金：国家自然科学基金青年基金项目(51809103);中央级公益性科研院所基本科研业务费专项典型滩区土地利用变化模拟与预测项目(HKY-JBYW-2016-08,HKY-JBYW-2018-06,HKY-JBYW-2017-01)。

摘　　要：为了实施黄河下游滩区村庄科学搬迁与安置,解决河道行洪被占用,洪水潜在威胁等问题,以黄河下游滩区为研究区,基于Logistic-CA-Markov模型,利用2022年土地利用、社会经济、基础地理信息等数据,计算村庄搬迁安置适宜性空间分布图,并设计3种不同情景对滩区内进行村庄搬迁模拟、村庄搬迁安置模拟,并从村庄搬迁安置政策、目标群体以及环境容量等方面进行可行性分析。结果表明:村庄搬迁安置区分为适宜区、适宜性较强区、非常适宜区,共计47800 ha,占到研究区总面积的比例为18.76%。筛选滩区内村庄淹没面积最大5个乡镇的村庄作为搬迁对象,进行同乡镇、跨乡镇、就近和集中安置,并对村庄搬迁区域复垦耕地和林地;筛选人均GDP最低5个乡镇的村庄作为搬迁对象,村庄主要向县城、集镇、干线公路和园区集中安置;筛选耕地面积最低5个乡镇的村庄作为搬迁对象,采用同乡镇、跨乡镇和就近安置方式进行村庄搬迁安置,最小限度占用耕地,并对搬迁区域复垦耕地。研究成果可为村庄搬迁安置决策提供科学依据。In order to scientifically relocate and resettle the villages in the floodplain area of the lower reaches of the Yellow River,and to solve problems such as the occupation of the river channel for flood discharge and the potential threats of floods,this study takes the floodplain area of the lower reaches of the Yellow River as the research area.Based on the Logistic-CA-Markov model,using the data of land use,socio-economic conditions,and basic geographic information in 2022,a spatial distribution map of the suitability for village relocation and resettlement is calculated.Three different scenarios are designed to simulate the village relocation and resettlement within the floodplain area,and a feasibility analysis is carried out from aspects such as the village relocation and resettlement policies,target groups,and environmental capacity.The results show that the areas suitable for village relocation and resettlement are divided into suitable areas,areas with relatively strong suitability,and very suitable areas,with a total area of 47,800 hectares,accounting for 18.76%of the total area of the research area.The villages in the five townships with the largest inundated area within the floodplain area are selected as the relocation objects,and they are resettled within the same township,across townships,nearby,or in a centralized manner.The cultivated land and forest land in the relocated village areas are reclaimed.The villages in the five townships with the lowest per capita GDP are selected as the relocation objects,and these villages are mainly resettled in a centralized manner in county towns,market towns,along trunk highways,and in industrial parks.The villages in the five townships with the lowest cultivated land area are selected as the relocation objects,and the villages are relocated and resettled in the same township,across townships,or nearby,with the least occupation of cultivated land,and the cultivated land in the relocated areas is reclaimed.The research results can provide a scientific basis for th

关 键 词：黄河下游滩区 土地利用格局 情景模拟 防洪安全 发展优先 耕地保护 

分 类 号：P962[天文地球—自然地理学]