基于洪水预报模型的双溪口水库下游洪水演进模拟  

Simulation of Flood Routing Downstream of Shuangxikou Reservoir Based on Flood Forecasting Model

作　　者：吴焕苗 周敏 周庆诗 杨波 赵博 Wu Huanmiao;Zhou Min;Zhou Qingshi;Yang Bo;Zhao Bo(Yuyao Reservoir Management Service Center,Yuyao 315400,China;State Key Laboratory of Water Engineering Ecology and Environment in Arid Area,Xi’an University of Technology,Xi'an 710048,China;Space Star Technology Co.,Ltd.,Beijing 100094,China)

机构地区：[1]余姚市水库管理服务中心,浙江余姚315400 [2]西安理工大学旱区水工程生态环境全国重点实验室,西安710048 [3]航天恒星科技有限公司,北京100094

出　　处：《西北水电》2025年第1期44-50,共7页Northwest Hydropower

基　　金：国家重点研发计划(2024YFC3012403);陕西省联合基金重点项目(2022JC-LHJJ-09)。

摘　　要：为精确模拟不同强度降雨下双溪口水库下游的洪水响应风险情况,基于河道及断面、场次降雨径流、二维地形数据和土地利用类型等数据,耦合新安江模型和GAST模型构建洪水模拟模型,模拟双溪口水库下游洪水淹没过程,并利用经验分析法评估淹没区域洪水风险等级。结果表明:5年一遇、10年一遇、20年一遇、50年一遇和100年一遇重现期下洪水总淹没面积分别为1.41 km^(2)、1.51 km^(2)、1.59 km^(2)、1.67 km^(2)和2.03 km^(2),呈渐增变化趋势。随着降雨重现期的增加,低风险区面积占比由5年一遇的71.33%下降至100年一遇的65.61%,中风险区面积占比由5年一遇的0.51%增加到100年一遇的1.90%,高风险区面积占比由5年一遇的28.16%增加到100年一遇的32.49%。此外,70%左右地区受洪水威胁较小,地势低洼且较平坦的城镇或耕地受洪水威胁较大。模拟结果可为双溪口水库下游洪水灾害预防,制定合理有效的安全管理应急预案提供重要支撑。In order to accurately simulate the flood response risk situation downstream of Shuangxikou Reservoir under different intensities of rainfall,based on data such as river channels and sections,storm rainfall-runoff,two-dimensional terrain data,and land use types,the Xin'anjiang model and the GAST model are coupled to construct a flood simulation model to simulate the flood inundation process downstream of Shuangxikou Reservoir,and the empirical analysis method is used to evaluate the flood risk levels of the inundated areas.The results show that the total flood inundation areas under the recurrence periods of once every 5 years,once every 10 years,once every 20 years,once every 50 years,and once every 100 years are 1.41 km^(2),1.51 km^(2),1.59 km^(2),1.67 km^(2),and 2.03 km^(2)respectively,showing a gradually increasing trend.With the increase of the rainfall recurrence period,the proportion of the area of the low-risk zone decreases from 71.33%in the 5-year recurrence period to 65.61%in the 100-year recurrence period,the proportion of the area of the medium-risk zone increases from 0.51%in the 5-year recurrence period to 1.90%in the 100-year recurrence period,and the proportion of the area of the high-risk zone increases from^(2)8.16%in the 5-year recurrence period to 32.49%in the 100-year recurrence period.In addition,about 70%of the area is less threatened by floods,while towns or cultivated lands with low-lying and relatively flat terrain are more threatened by floods.The simulation results can provide important support for the prevention of flood disasters downstream of Shuangxikou Reservoir and the formulation of reasonable and effective emergency plans for safety management.

关 键 词：洪水预报 洪水淹没模拟 风险等级评估 水库流域 

分 类 号：TV122[水利工程—水文学及水资源]