鄂西北山区无资料中小河流洪水预报模型的快速构建与应用  

Rapidly Constructing and Application of Flood Forecasting Models for Ungauged Small and Medium-sized Rivers in the Mountainous Areas of Northwestern Hubei Province

作　　者：陈端丹 宋丹 吴铁钧 潘晓斌 孙坤 CHEN Duandan;SONG Dan;WU Tiejun;PAN Xiaobin;SUN Kun(Hydrological and Water Resources Survey Bureau of Shiyan City,Shiyan 442000,China)

机构地区：[1]湖北省十堰市水文水资源勘测局,湖北十堰442000

出　　处：《长江技术经济》2025年第1期56-61,67,共7页Technology and Economy of Changjiang

摘　　要：近年来,颠覆传统认知的极端天气突发事件频繁出现,基层水文作为应急抢险先遣队员,必须担负突发灾害情况下快速监测预报的重任。针对鄂西北山区中小河流无水文监测站点、少数中小河流建站年限较短、系列资料不足的情况,参考API模型构造原理快速构建了鄂西北山区无资料中小河流洪水预报方案,选取县河站进行验证。结果表明,构建的洪水预报方案在鄂西北山区无资料中小河流作业预报中取得了较好的应用效果,研究成果可为地方防灾救灾提供科学依据。Extreme weather emergencies,which have challenged conventional perceptions,have become increasingly frequent in recent years.As advance organizers for emergency rescue,grass-roots hydrological institutions should undertake the important task of rapid monitoring and forecasting in sudden disaster situations.In the mountainous areas of Northwest Hubei Province,some small and medium-sized rivers lack hydrological monitoring stations,or have recently established stations,or suffer from insufficient data series.In view of this,we rapidly constructed a flood forecasting scheme for these small and medium-sized rivers based on the principles of API model and verified the scheme by using county river stations.The results show that the constructed flood forecasting scheme performs well in ungauged small and medium-sized rivers in the mountainous area of Northwest Hubei,providing a scientific basis for local disaster prevention and relief.

关 键 词：洪水预报 鄂西北山区 无资料 中小河流 快速构建 

分 类 号：P338[天文地球—水文科学]