基于价格随机的苏北杨树人工林多碳库最优轮伐模型构建与评估  

and evaluation of the optimal rotation model for multi carbon storage of poplar plantations in northern Jiangsu based on price stochasticity

作　　者：王晓雯 余智涵 杨红强[1,2,3] Construction WANG Xiaowen;YU Zhihan;YANG Hongqiang(College of Economics and Management,Nanjing Forestry University,Nanjing 210037,China;Research Center for Economics and Trade in Forest Products,National Forestry and Grassland Administration,Nanjing 210037,China;Center for the Yangtze River Delta′s Socioeconomic Development,Nanjing University,Nanjing 210093,China)

机构地区：[1]南京林业大学经济管理学院,南京210037 [2]国家林业与草原局林产品经济贸易研究中心,南京210037 [3]南京大学长江三角洲经济社会发展研究中心,南京210093

出　　处：《生态学报》2025年第5期2326-2336,共11页Acta Ecologica Sinica

基　　金：国家社科基金重大项目(23&ZD103);国家自然科学基金面上项目(72073064)。

摘　　要：发展林业碳汇、加强人工林的可持续经营是中国实现“碳中和”目标的重要手段。价格随机和价格不确定性是影响森林经营者决策最优轮伐的重要因素。基于拓展的Faustmann⁃Hartman模型,构建了包含生物量碳库、死亡有机质碳库、木质林产品碳库和生物质能源碳库的多碳库最优轮伐决策模型,分析了价格随机对苏北杨树人工林最优轮伐期的影响,评估了多碳库情境下森林经营者营林收益水平。结果表明:(1)基准情景下,依次纳入木材收益、生物量、死亡有机质、木质林产品和生物质能源碳库收益的苏北杨树最优轮伐期均在8—9年之间,依次纳入多种碳库收益未对森林经营者的采伐决策产生过多干扰;(2)在中国现行碳价格水平下,纳入多碳库收益会持续提高土地期望值,全面考虑营林过程中的碳汇收益可提升苏北杨树经营者收益约191%,经济潜力广阔;(3)敏感性分析表明,贴现率、木材和碳汇的长期均衡价格是影响森林经营者管理决策的重要因素。相比之下,木材和碳价格波动的影响相对较小,提升市场长期稳定价格意义凸显。研究提出了应加强林业多碳库碳汇能力监测与评估分析、促进木材价格稳定上涨、推动碳配额与中国核证自愿减排量市场有效衔接、兼顾木材和碳汇生产能力以及重视长期经营中多重风险防范的苏北杨树可持续经营对策建议。Developing forestry carbon sequestration and enhancing the sustainable management of plantations are essential strategies for China to achieve its“carbon neutrality”objectives.Particularly,the optimal rotation age for forests is significantly influenced by price volatility and uncertainty,which are critical factors in forest managers′decision⁃making processes.Using an extended Faustmann⁃Hartman model,this study developed an optimal harvesting decision⁃making framework that includes multiple carbon pools,such as biomass,dead organic matter,wood forest products,and biomass energy.We have conducted an analysis on the influence of price stochasticity on the optimal rotation periods for poplar plantations in Northern Jiangsu Province and evaluated the potential revenue for forest managers under the multi⁃carbon pool scenario.The results show that:(1)Under the baseline scenario,the optimal rotation periods for poplar plantations in Northern Jiangsu,when considering revenues from timber,biomass,dead organic matter,wood forest products,and biomass energy carbon pool in succession,are consistently found to be between 8 to 9 years.This suggests a relatively stable optimal rotation period despite the inclusion of various carbon pools in the revenue calculations;(2)Under the current carbon price level in China,incorporating revenue from multiple carbon pools successively leads to a continuous increase in the expected land value.This indicates that a comprehensive consideration of carbon sink benefits during forestry operations could significantly enhance the revenue of poplar forest managers in Northern Jiangsu by approximately 191%.This substantial increase underscores the economic potential of integrating carbon sequestration into forest management practices;(3)Sensitivity analysis demonstrates that discount rates and the long⁃term equilibrium prices of timber and carbon sinks are pivotal factors in shaping forest management decisions.The impact of price fluctuations for both timber and carbon sinks,while i

关 键 词：可持续经营 Faustmann⁃Hartman模型 多碳库 价格随机 杨树人工林 

分 类 号：F32[经济管理—产业经济]