基于VAR的新疆玉米种植面积和产量预测  

Prediction of Corn Planting Area and Yield in Xinjiang Based on VAR

作　　者：齐丹丹[1] 李欣茹 Qi Dandan;LI Xinru(Harbin University of Commerce Academy of Business Economics,Haerbin Heilongjiang 150028,China;Harbin University of Commerce School of Economics,Haerbin Heilongjiang 150028,China)

机构地区：[1]哈尔滨商业大学商业经济研究院,黑龙江哈尔滨150028 [2]哈尔滨商业大学经济学院,黑龙江哈尔滨150028

出　　处：《绿洲农业科学与工程》2025年第1期13-20,共8页Oasis Agriculture Science and Engineering

基　　金：黑龙江省博士后科研启动项目(LBH-20106);黑龙江省社科基金一般项目(23JYA041)。

摘　　要：随着全球气候变化和人口增长对粮食安全的影响日益显著,对农作物种植面积和产量的准确预测变得尤为重要。本文运用向量自回归模型(VAR)对新疆玉米种植面积和产量进行预测分析。通过收集历史数据,构建VAR模型,并进行一系列检验分析,得到最终预测模型,模型预测到2024年玉米的种植面积为14728.61km^(2),产量为1357.76万t。最后根据预测结果给出政府应该优化农业种植结构、加强农业风险管理,农户可以增加玉米种植面积的政策建议,旨在为新疆玉米的产业规划与决策提供科学依据。With the increasing impact of global climate change and population growth on food security,accurate forecasting of crop planting area and yield has become particularly important.This paper applies the Vector Autoregressio(VAR)model to predict and analyze the planting area and yield of corn in Xinjiang.By collecting historical data and constructing the VAR model,along with a series of tests and analyses,the final forecast model is obtained.The model predicts that by 2024,the corn planting area will be14728.61 km^(2),and the yield will be 1357.76 million tons.Based on the forecast results,policy recommendations are given for the government to optimize the agricultural planting structure,strengthen the protection of agricultural resources,and enhance agricultural risk management.Farmers are advised to increase the planting area of corn.These recommendations aim to provide a scientific basis for the industrial planning and decision-making of corn in Xinjiang.

关 键 词：新疆玉米 种植面积 产量 VAR模型 

分 类 号：F326.11[经济管理—产业经济]