赤峰地区杨絮飘飞期气象预测研究  

Research on Meteorological Prediction of Poplar catkins Drifting Period in Chifeng Area

作　　者：高鹤鸣 GAO Heming(Chifeng Meteorological Observatory,Chifeng Inner Mongolia 024000,China)

机构地区：[1]赤峰市气象台,内蒙古赤峰024000

出　　处：《绿洲农业科学与工程》2025年第1期74-79,共6页Oasis Agriculture Science and Engineering

基　　金：赤峰地区杨柳絮飘飞期气象预测研究(FQXKJCX202405)。

摘　　要：本文通过对赤峰地区杨絮物候期进行长期、连续的观测和数据采集,通过构建动态预测模型,对赤峰地区杨絮飘飞期气象预测进行研究,结果表明,利用赤峰市农业气象试验站杨絮飘飞期的气象资料,将杨絮飘飞期各气象因子进行加权处理获得综合气温、综合湿度、综合风速等综合气象因子,并和杨絮飘飞期天数进行相关分析,构建杨絮飘飞期动态预测模型,综合气象因子与杨絮飘飞期天数相关性分析,各综合气象因子与杨絮飘飞期天数相关系数全部达到极显著水平,这表明前期的平均气温、平均湿度、平均风速均会对后期杨絮飘飞期长短有重要的影响。综合气象因子为自变量构建的动态预测模型能将杨絮飘飞天数的变化客观反映出来,可实现对杨絮飘飞天数的动态预测。This article conducts long-term and continuous observations and data collection on the phenological period of poplar catkins in Chifeng area,and constructs a dynamic prediction model to study the meteorological prediction of the floating period of poplar catkins in Chifeng area.The results show that using the meteorological data of the agricultural meteorological experimental station of Chifeng City during the floating period of poplar catkins,the comprehensive meteorological factors such as comprehensive temperature,comprehensive humidity,and comprehensive wind speed are obtained by weighting the various meteorological factors of the floating period of poplar catkins,and the correlation analysis is carried out with the number of days of the floating period of poplar catkins.A dynamic prediction model of the floating period of poplar catkins is constructed.The correlation analysis between the comprehensive meteorological factors and the number of days of the floating period of poplar catkins shows that all the correlation coefficients between the comprehensive meteorological factors and the number of days of the floating period of poplar catkins have reached a highly significant level,indicating that The The average wind speed has a significant impact on the length of the later period of poplar catkins drifting.The dynamic prediction model constructed with comprehensive meteorological factors as independent variables can objectively reflect the changes in the number of days when poplar catkins float,and can achieve dynamic prediction of the number of days when poplar catkins float.

关 键 词：杨絮 飘飞期 动态预测 模型 气象因子 

分 类 号：TM615[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]