复杂网络架构中农业企业风险的演化轨迹与特征研究  

Evolutionary Trajectory and Characterization of Agribusiness Risk in Complex Network Architectures

作　　者：卢欣永 LU Xinyong(College of Economy and Trade,Zhongkai University of Agriculture and Engineering,Guangzhou Guangdong 510550,China)

机构地区：[1]仲恺农业工程学院经贸学院,广东广州510550

出　　处：《绿洲农业科学与工程》2025年第1期169-177,共9页Oasis Agriculture Science and Engineering

基　　金：国际研究基金项目(IACMSP1508019);国家自然科学地区基金项目(72064008);仲恺农业工程学院研究生科技创新基金资助项目(KJCX2024031)。

摘　　要：随着市场经济的持续深化,农业企业的风险传导日趋复杂。上市公司发生重大风险后,相关风险会蔓延至更多企业,这对于资金相对乏、抗风险能力较弱的农业企业打击更为剧烈。因此本研究采用了Leading Eigenvector、Louvain和Spinglass等社团划分算法,分析了农业股网络的拓扑结构和社团演化,揭示了农业股风险传导网络的动态演变特征。研究发现,2021年后农业股的社团结构从多社团模式逐渐演变为两大社团主导的风险传导集群,且风险传导速度呈现U型变化趋势,这与宏观事件的滞后效应相关。此外,节点中心性分析表明,不同企业在风险传播中的重要性和影响力存在差异。研究结果表明,宏观事件对农业股风险网络的影响存在缓冲期,随后风险传导速度加快,以期为企业、投资者和政策制定者在未来应对风险提供了具有参考价值的依据与启示。As the market economy continues to deepen,the transmission of risk in agribusiness is becoming increasingly complex.After a major risk occurs in a listed company,the related risk will spread to more enterprises,which is a more drastic blow to agribusinesses with relatively scarce capital and risk-resistant ability.Therefore,this study employs association division algorithms such as Leading Eigenvector,Louvain and Spinglass to analyze the topology and association evolution of the agricultural stock network,and reveals the dynamic evolution characteristics of the risk transmission network of agricultural stocks.It is found that the association structure of agricultural stocks after 2021 gradually evolves from a multi-association model to a risk-transmission cluster dominated by two major associations,and the risk-transmission speed shows a U-shaped trend,which is related to the lag effect of macro events.In addition,the node centrality analysis shows that there are differences in the importance and influence of different firms in risk transmission.The findings suggest that there is a buffer period for the impact of macro events on the risk network of agricultural stocks,followed by an acceleration of the speed of risk transmission,with a view to providing a reference-valued basis and insights for enterprises,investors and policymakers to cope with risks in the future.

关 键 词：复杂网络 农业企业 社团划分算法 风险传导 

分 类 号：S-9[农业科学] F321[经济管理—产业经济]