北京市分单元通勤模型的构建与应用  

Development and Application of a Subunit Commuting Model in Beijing

作　　者：周佳林 王德[2] 顾家焕 ZHOU Jialin;WANG De;GU Jiahuan(The Rising Lab,Shanghai 200041,China;College of Architecture and Urban Planning,Tongji University,Shanghai 200092,China;Zhejiang Urban and Rural Planning Design Institute Co.,Ltd.,Hangzhou Zhejiang 310007,China)

机构地区：[1]新一线城市研究所,上海200041 [2]同济大学建筑与城市规划学院,上海200092 [3]浙江省城乡规划设计研究院,浙江杭州310007

出　　处：《城市交通》2025年第1期96-106,共11页Urban Transport of China

基　　金：国家自然科学基金课题“时空行为规划的框架、方法与实证研究”(52378069)。

摘　　要：城市规划的实施可能对通勤格局产生重大影响,相关预评估尤为必要。依托手机信令数据,对北京市1676个空间单元平行构建居住地一侧和就业地一侧两组分单元通勤模型,解释居民通勤去向与职工通勤来源的分布规律。每一侧模型内又依次形成了基础模型、优化模型、残差模型3个版本:基础模型仅包含居住人口、距离和就业规模3个变量,具有稳定的预测效果,可用于远景模拟;优化模型在此基础上增加居住地类型、区位、就业地类型等系统变量,可用于中远期模拟;残差模型考虑了当前存在的特殊通勤联系而短期内无法消除的部分,仅适用于近期模拟。以某互联网新总部建成影响、规划人口目标下的通勤格局变化、近郊就业岗位布局3个案例展示了分单元通勤模型库在职住空间规划评估中的应用,证明其具有良好的模拟结果,可为规划决策提供技术支撑。The implementation of urban planning may have a significant impact on the commuting pattern,making relevant pre-assessment particularly necessary.Based on mobile signaling data,commuting models of residence and employment for 1,676 units in Beijing are developed,which explain the distribution patterns of residents'commuting destinations and commuters'origins.Within each side of the model,three versions were successively formed:the basic model,the optimized model,and the residual model.Residence and employment model includes basic model,optimized model and residual model respectively.The basic model only includes the resident population,distance,and employment scale,and has a stable prediction effect,which can be used for long-term simulation.On such basis,the optimized model adds systematic variables such as the type of residence,location,and type of employment,and can be utilized for medium and long-term simulation.The residual model considers the special commuting connections that currently exist and cannot be eliminated in the short term,and is only applicable to short-term simulation.The application of the subunit commuting model library in the evaluation of residential and employment spatial planning are demonstrated through three cases:the impact of the construction of a new internet headquarters,the changes in commuting patterns under the planned population target,and the layout of employment positions in the suburbs.The simulation results prove that the proposed models can provide technical support for planning decisions.

关 键 词：通勤模型 手机信令数据 居住地 就业地 基础模型 优化模型 残差模型 北京市 

分 类 号：U491.12[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]