水产饲料价格波动对养殖成本的影响研究  

Research on impact of fluctuations in aquatic feed prices on breeding costs

作　　者：谢甜[1] XIE Tian

机构地区：[1]河南工业贸易职业学院经济贸易学院,河南郑州450000

出　　处：《饲料研究》2025年第2期232-235,共4页Feed Research

基　　金：河南省软科学计划项目(项目编号:162400410244)。

摘　　要：稳定水产饲料价格是提升水产品自给水平的重要手段,也是保障渔业经济发展的有力措施,更是促进水产养殖业高质量发展的核心所在。基于2015年1月——2023年1月的月度数据,利用VAR模型、脉冲响应函数、方差分解法探析水产饲料价格波动对养殖成本的影响。结果显示,水产饲料价格波动与养殖成本之间存在协整关系,即水产饲料价格波动是影响养殖成本的重要因素,且两者之间的联动关系长期存在。水产饲料价格对养殖成本冲击的响应期约为2年,且水产饲料价格在24个月后对养殖成本仍有6.8849%的贡献率。研究表明,水产饲料价格对水产养殖成本的贡献较高,证明水产饲料价格波动是影响养殖成本的重要因素。Stabilizing the price of aquatic feed is an important means to improve the self-sufficiency level of aquatic products,a powerful measure to ensure the development of fishery economy,and the core of promoting high-quality development of aquaculture industry.Based on monthly data from January 2015 to January 2023,this study uses VAR model,impulse response function,and variance decomposition method to explore the impact of aquatic feed price fluctuations on aquaculture costs.The results showed that there is a cointegration relationship between the fluctuation of aquatic feed prices and aquaculture costs,that is,the fluctuation of aquatic feed prices is an important factor affecting aquaculture costs,and the linkage relationship between the two exists for a long time.The response period for the impact of aquatic feed prices on aquaculture costs is about two years,and in the second year,the contribution rate of aquatic feed prices to aquaculture costs is about 6.8849%.The study indicates that the high contribution of aquatic feed prices to aquaculture costs proves that fluctuations in aquatic feed prices are an important factor affecting aquaculture costs.

关 键 词：水产养殖 饲料价格波动 养殖成本 价格效应 

分 类 号：S8-9[农业科学—畜牧兽医]