能源消费、碳排放与经济增长的动态关系研究:实现“双碳”目标的路径  

Dynamic Relationship Between Energy Consumption,Carbon Emissions,and Economic Growth:Pathways to Achieve the“Dual Carbon”Goals

作　　者：秦炳涛 李付子 QIN Bingtao;LI Fuzi(Management School,University of Shanghai for Science and Technology,Shanghai 200093,China)

机构地区：[1]上海理工大学管理学院,上海200093

出　　处：《技术与创新管理》2025年第2期217-226,共10页Technology and Innovation Management

基　　金：教育部人文社科青年基金项目(16YJC790083);上海市哲学社会科学规划项目(2020BGL012);上海市哲学社会科学规划课题青年项目(2021EGL007)。

摘　　要：平衡能源消费、碳排放和经济增长之间的相关关系对中国促进经济结构绿色转型,并实现“双碳”目标具有重要意义。本文基于2006至2018年间中国282座城市的综合面板数据,运用联立方程模型深入剖析了能源消费、碳排放及经济增长三者间的动态关系研究。能源消费促进碳排放和经济增长,而碳排放的增加又抑制经济增长。经济增长进一步推动能源消费和碳排放的上升,经过多种稳健性检验后依然稳固。异质性分析显示,城市规模的差异显著影响了上述关系。大城市中,碳排放对经济增长的抑制作用和能源消费对经济增长的促进作用均更为突出。并且全国碳市场试点的实施,削弱了能源消费对经济增长的促进效应,也削弱了碳排放对经济增长的抑制作用。这一研究不仅丰富了能源-环境-经济系统相互作用的理论文献,还为在新发展格局下推动经济结构向绿色转型,以达成“双碳”目标提供了理论依据与策略启示。Examining the interrelationships among energy consumption,carbon emissions,and economic growth is crucial for China’s transition to a green economic structure and achieving the“dual carbon”goals.This study utilizes comprehensive panel data from 282 cities in China between 2006 and 2018,employing a simultaneous equation model to analyze the dynamic interactions among energy consumption,carbon emissions,and economic growth.The results show that:Energy consumption promotes both carbon emissions and economic growth,while increasing carbon emissions suppress economic growth.Economic growth further drives the rise in energy consumption and carbon emissions,and remains robust through various sensitivity tests.Heterogeneity analysis reveals that differences in city size significantly influence the aforementioned relationships.In larger cities,the suppressive effect of carbon emissions on economic growth and the promoting effect of energy consumption on economic growth are both more pronounced.Additionally,the implementation of the national carbon market pilot has weakened the promoting effect of energy consumption on economic growth,as well as the suppressive effect of carbon emissions on economic growth.This research not only enriches the theoretical literature on the interactions within the energy-environment-economy system but also provides important theoretical foundations and policy recommendations for advancing the green transition of the economic structure and achieving the“dual carbon”goals in the new development context.

关 键 词：“双碳”目标 能源消费 碳排放 经济增长 联立方程组模型 

分 类 号：F124[经济管理—世界经济] F205