成渝城市群碳排放强度与新型城镇化水平耦合协调度时空演变及影响因素  

Spatio-Temporal Evolution and Influencing Factor Analysis of Carbon Emission Intensity and New Urbanization Level Coupling Coordination in the Chengdu-Chongqing Urban Agglomeration

作　　者：赵兴洪 帅红[1] ZHAO Xing-hong;SHUAI Hong(School of Geographical Sciences,Hunan Normal University,Changsha 410081,China)

机构地区：[1]湖南师范大学地理科学学院,长沙410081

出　　处：《湖南师范大学自然科学学报》2025年第1期37-46,共10页Journal of Natural Science of Hunan Normal University

基　　金：湖南省自然科学基金资助项目(2020JJ4056)。

摘　　要：运用熵值法、耦合协调度模型、核密度估计、趋势面分析以及Tobit模型等方法,对2010—2021年成渝城市群碳排放强度与新型城镇化耦合协调关系开展研究,剖析影响二者协调发展水平的因素。结果表明:(1)2010—2021年碳排放强度逐年降低,各城市间的差距逐渐减小,逐步向低碳化方向发展。(2)新型城镇化水平逐年上升,逐步形成以经济、社会城镇化为主导,人口、环境、空间城镇化相互磨合的城镇化体系。(3)碳排放强度与新型城镇化的耦合度由磨合阶段发展为协调阶段,逐步实现良性互动,耦合协调水平由2010年的0.58上升到2021年的0.81,由勉强协调发展为良好协调,空间分布上呈现出“双核领跑,东高西低,北高南低”的分布格局。(4)经济基础(ln GDP)、政府支持(ln GOVE)和科技创新(TEC)对耦合协调度为正向影响,人口规模(ln P)、产业结构(IN)和能源消费强度(EI)为负向影响,影响作用强度由大到小依次为人口规模、能源消费强度、经济基础、政府支持、产业结构、科技创新。This article uses the entropy method,coupling coordination degree model,kernel density estimation,trend surface analysis,and Tobit model to study the coupling coordination relationship and factors affecting the level of coordinated development between carbon emission intensity and new urbanization in the Chengdu-Chongqing urban agglomeration from 2010 to 2021.The results show as follows.(1)From 2010 to 2021,the carbon emission intensity decreases year by year,and the gap between cities decreases gradually,moving towards a low-carbon direction.(2)The level of new urbanization increases year by year,gradually forming an urbanization system dominated by economic and social urbanization,with population,environment,and spatial urbanization complementing each other.(3)The coupling degree between carbon emission intensity and new urbanization develops from the adjustment stage to the coordination stage,gradually achieving a positive interaction.The coupling coordination level increases from 0.58 in 2010 to 0.81 in 2021,with bare coordination to good coordination.The spatial distribution shows a“dual core leading,high in the east and low in the west,high in the north and low in the south”distribution pattern.(4)The economic foundation(ln GDP),government support(ln GOVE),and technological innovation(TEC)have positive impacts on the coupling coordination degree,while population size(ln P),industrial structure(IN),and energy consumption intensity(EI)have negative impacts.The order of the impact intensity from large to small is population size,energy consumption intensity,economic foundation,government support,industrial structure,and technological innovation.

关 键 词：成渝城市群 新型城镇化 碳排放强度 耦合协调 TOBIT模型 

分 类 号：F299.27[经济管理—国民经济] X321[环境科学与工程—环境工程]