基于DEMATEL-ISM的采空区稳定性模糊评价  

Fuzzy Evaluation of Goaf Stability Based on DEMATEL-ISM

作　　者：刘艳彪 刘子涵 王瑞强 徐帅[1] LIU Yanbiao;LIU Zihan;WANG Ruiqiang;XU Shuai(Key Laboratory of Ministry of Education on Safe Mining of Deep Metal Mines,Northeastern University,Shenyang 110004,Liaoning,China;Shandong Humon Smelting Co.,Ltd.,Yantai 264108,Shandong,China)

机构地区：[1]东北大学深部金属矿山安全开采教育部重点实验室,辽宁沈阳110004 [2]山东恒邦冶炼股份有限公司,山东烟台264108

出　　处：《黄金科学技术》2025年第1期149-158,共10页Gold Science and Technology

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目“热—应力—腐蚀耦合作用下自膨胀锚杆锚固强度时效性能研究”(编号:52074062);“爆破载荷下自膨胀填塞体作用机理与爆破能量调控机制研究”(编号:51874068)联合资助。

摘　　要：针对采空区稳定性分析影响因素多、定量化评价困难等问题,提出了一种基于决策实验室分析(DEMATEL)—解释结构模型(ISM)的采空区稳定性模糊综合评价方法。利用DEMATEL-ISM模型分析了3个维度共12个主要危险因素间的复杂关系,识别关键因素和因素间的影响路径,进行了因素的层次划分和权重确定。同时,将权重集引入模糊综合评价体系,建立了一种新型采空区稳定性评价模型,实现了采空区稳定性分级。依托某铅锌矿,以930 m中段36-2采空区作为研究对象进行采空区稳定性评价,采用FLAC^(3D)数值模拟软件分析了该采空区的稳定性状况,并对评价分级结果进行了验证。结果表明:本文提出的采空区稳定性评价模型具有较高的适用性和准确性,能够为采空区的安全管理提供理论支撑。The extraction of mineral resources through techniques such as the room-and-pillar method in underground metal mines results in the formation of numerous goafs,which can readily lead to pillar deformation and roof collapse,thereby creating significant safety hazards.Furthermore,the collapse of goafs can induce mining-related seismic events,water inrush,and mud inrush,posing substantial risks to both personnel and equipment.Conducting precise risk assessments of goaf stability is fundamental for comprehending and managing these risks,which is essential for effective disaster prevention and mitigation.Consequently,performing precise stability risk assessments for goaves is crucial for effective risk management.Addressing the complexities posed by numerous influencing factors and the challenges associated with quantitative assessment in goaf stability analysis,this study introduces a fuzzy comprehensive evaluation approach that integrates the Decision-Making Trial and Evaluation Laboratory(DEMATEL)and Interpretive Structural Modeling(ISM)methodologies.Initially,the factors influencing goaf stability were identified through a comprehensive approach involving field investigations,literature review,and consultations with experts.An initial screening process identified fifteen risk factors associated with rock mass structure,goaf morphology,and environmental impact.Subsequently,twelve critical risk factors were determined,encompassing geological structure,rock mass properties,in-situ stress,groundwater conditions,goaf volume,shape,span,temporal effects,effects of adjacent goafs,mining disturbances,support conditions,and natural disasters.This led to the development of a systematic framework for evaluating goaf stability.Utilizing DEMATEL and ISM analysis,this study investigated the intricate interrelationships among influencing factors to develop a hierarchical framework for goaf stability determinants.An oriented hierarchical structure diagram was constructed to facilitate the classification and weighting of these fact

关 键 词：采空区 稳定性评价 DEMATEL-ISM模型 模糊综合评价 数值模拟 稳定性因素 

分 类 号：TD853[矿业工程—金属矿开采]