研究生扩招有助于缓解青年失业吗--来自OECD国家的证据  

Does Postgraduate Enrollment Expansion Help Alleviate Youth Unemployment:Evidence from OECD Countries

作　　者：王佳慧 刘金东 褚洪良 WANG Jiahui;LIU Jindong;CHU Hongliang(School of Economics,Shanghai University of Finance and Economics,Shanghai 200433,China;School of Finance and Taxation,Shandong University of Finance and Economics,Jinan 250014,China;School of Finance and Taxation,Zhongnan University of Economics and Law,Wuhan 430073,China)

机构地区：[1]上海财经大学经济学院,上海200433 [2]山东财经大学财政税务学院,山东济南250014 [3]中南财经政法大学财政税务学院,湖北武汉430073

出　　处：《山东财经大学学报》2025年第2期33-48,共16页Journal of Shandong University of Finance and Economics

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目“失业风险冲击下青年群体收入差距的动态演化与长效治理研究”(23BGL241)。

摘　　要：三重压力叠加新冠肺炎疫情影响下,我国青年失业率日趋突出,“毕业即失业”成为很多高校毕业生面临的现实问题。促进青年特别是高校毕业生就业成为党中央、国务院决策部署的重要工作任务。近年来,通过研究生扩招提升高校毕业生就业率的实践和讨论不断涌现。基于Borjas模型的理论分析结论表明[DK]∶研究生扩招的直接受益者更多是就业优势群体,并不能改善就业弱势群体就业难的基本面。基于OECD国家历史面板数据进行实证分析,结果验证了以上推论,并发现人均受教育年限的提高并不能显著降低青年失业率,也未能有效提升青年就业质量,只是充当了抵冲收入“疤痕效应”的策略性选择。进一步基于OECD市场激活计划的实证检验显示,只有让就业弱势群体直接受益的就业扶持政策才能从根本上改善青年失业状况。为此,要谨慎评估研究扩招政策的青年就业效应,强化以就业为导向的研究生教育体系;加强初次就业公共服务体系,协同推动青年群体更加充分和高质量就业;建立毕业生就业跟踪服务,加强对离校未就业毕业生的关注和帮扶。Under the influence of the triple pressures plus the COVID-19 epidemic situation,the youth unemployment rate in our country has become increasingly prominent,and thus“unemployment upon graduation”has become a realistic problem faced by many college graduates.Promoting the employment of young people,especially college graduates,has become an important task decided and deployed by the Party Central Committee and the State Council.In recent years,the practice and discussion of improving college graduates’employment rate through expanding postgraduate enrollment has continued to emerge.The theoretical analysis based on the Borjas model indicates that the direct beneficiaries of postgraduate enrollment expansion are more of the employment advantage groups without improving the fundamentals of employment difficulty of employment disadvantaged groups.Based on the historical panel data of OECD countries,this study conducts an empirical analysis,and the results have verified the above inference,and it is found that the increase in per capita education years can’t significantly reduce youth unemployment rate,nor does it effectively improve the quality of youth employment,only serving as a strategic choice to offset the income scar effect.Further empirical testing based on the OECD market activation program shows that only the employment support policies that directly benefit the employment disadvantaged groups can fundamentally improve youth unemployment situation.The present research has certain reference significance for implementing precise policies in the future to promote more comprehensive and high-quality youth employment.

关 键 词：青年失业 初次就业 就业质量 研究生扩招 

分 类 号：F241.4[经济管理—劳动经济]