延伸威慑可信度、联盟建设信号与AUKUS的扩张逻辑  

Extended Deterrence Credibility,Coalition Building Signals,and the Logic of AUKUS Expansion

作　　者：冯钧泽 FENG Junze(Nanjing University)

机构地区：[1]南京大学国际关系研究院,江苏南京210023

出　　处：《边界与海洋研究》2025年第1期46-68,共23页Journal of Boundary and Ocean Studies

基　　金：国家社科基金青年项目“‘印太经济框架’下东南亚国家的战略选择及中国应对研究”(项目编号:23CGJ040);国家社会科学基金重点项目“东南亚次区域合作与区域格局演变研究(1951—2021)”(项目编号:22ASS004)阶段性成果。

摘　　要：联盟主导国主要通过联盟建设信号来确保其延伸威慑的可信度,主导国在联盟建设信号建立、联盟建设信号调适以及联盟建设信号实践的过程中,实现联盟的建设与扩张。美英澳三边安全伙伴关系(AUKUS)不仅是一种进攻性小多边联盟,还是美国主导的、以中国为“外在威胁”、为美国印太盟友提供安全保护承诺的延伸威慑。AUKUS的建设与扩张遵循延伸威慑的逻辑。为了在澳大利亚长久地部署核动力潜艇,AUKUS的主导国美国发出联盟建设信号,美英澳三国进行信号调适并形成反华价值联盟,软性价值联盟制度化形成实质性联盟,AUKUS的“第一支柱”建设稳步推进;为了加强美国印太传统盟友之间的尖端国防技术合作,美国发出“第二支柱”建设信号,美英澳三国进行信号调适并启动将日本纳入“第二支柱”的谈判,日本、新西兰、加拿大、印度和韩国已与美英澳三国达成初步反华共识,皆在AUKUS“第二支柱”扩张的潜在成员之列。从延伸威慑的视角理解AUKUS建设与扩张的行为逻辑,对于评估AUKUS的性质、动因和影响具有重要的学理意义和现实意义。Coalition lead states ensure the credibility of their extended deterrence mainly through coalition building signals,and the lead states realize the construction and expansion of the coalition in the process of coalition building signals establishment,coalition building signals adaptation,and coalition building signals practice.AUKUS is not only a kind of offensive mini-polygonal coalition,but also an extended deterrence led by the U.S.with China as the enemy country of “external threat” and providing security protection commitments for U.S.Indo-Pacific allies.The building and expansion of AUKUS follows the logic of extended deterrence.In order to deploy nuclear-powered submarines in Australia for a long time,the U.S.,the leading country of AUKUS,sends out alliance-building signals,the U.S.,Britain,and Australia adjust their signals and form an alliance of anti-Chinese values,and the soft value alliance is institutionalized to form a substantive alliance,so that the construction of AUKUS's “First Pillar” is steadily advancing;in order to strengthen the cooperation in cutting-edge defense technologies among traditional U.S.Indo-Pacific allies,the U.S.,the leading country of AUKUS,has issued a signal for the construction of “Pillar 2”,the U.S.,Britain,and Australia have adapted to the signal,and initiated the negotiation for the incorporation of Japan into Pillar 2.Japan,New Zealand,Canada,India,and South Korea have reached a preliminary anti-China consensus with the U.S.,U.K.,and Australia,and are all potential members of the AUKUS “second pillar” expansion.Understanding the behavioral logic of AUKUS construction and expansion from the perspective of extended deterrence is of great significance in terms of theory and reality in assessing the nature,motivation and impact of AUKUS.

关 键 词：延伸威慑 联盟建设 AUKUS扩张 小多边主义 中美竞争 

分 类 号：D822.371.2[政治法律—政治学] D815[政治法律—外交学]