中国水稻甲烷排放空间格局演变与技术减缓潜力分析  

Spatial evolution of rice methane emission and technology mitigation potential in China

作　　者：李思琪 华而实 陈敏鹏 LI Si-qi;HUA Er-shi;CHEN Min-peng(School of Agriculture and Rural Development,Renmin University of China,Beijing 100872,China)

机构地区：[1]中国人民大学农业与农村发展学院,北京100872

出　　处：《中国环境科学》2025年第3期1218-1230,共13页China Environmental Science

基　　金：国家重点研发计划(2023YFE0113000)。

摘　　要：基于清单模型估算了1980~2060年县域水稻种植甲烷排放量和单位稻谷产量甲烷的排放强度,分析了常规技术情景(TP)和极限技术情景(MTP)下的减缓潜力.结果表明,1980~2020年中国水稻甲烷排放量先降后升,2020年比1980年下降19%,同时排放强度下降46%.到2060年,与基准(BAU)情景相比,TP和MTP情景下的甲烷排放量分别减排26%和70%,排放强度分别降低26%和68%.1980~2020年中国县域水稻种植甲烷排放量和排放强度空间分布格局发生了明显变化,水稻种植甲烷排放量的重心向东北移动347km,排放强度的重心向东南移动411km.湖南、湖北和江西等南方地区县域水稻种植甲烷排放量和排放强度均呈下降趋势;新疆、山东和河南等原排放强度较高的地区,水稻种植逐渐被替代,排放强度降低;东北地区甲烷排放量虽有增加,但排放强度始终保持在较低水平.未来情景显示,稻田水分管理减缓潜力最大,对总减缓潜力的贡献率超过60%.高减缓潜力主要分布在排放量大的区域,例如,湖南、湖北、江西、黑龙江和广东等地区,其平均减缓潜力是其他地区的两倍.Using the inventory model,this study evaluated the tempo-spatial characteristics of methane emissions from rice cultivation at the county level and their emission intensity per unit of rice production over the period 1980~2060.A comparison of mitigation potentials was also conducted between the baseline(BAU)scenario,the conventional technical potential(TP)scenario,and the maximum technical potential(MTP)scenario.The results showed that China's rice cultivation methane emissions decreased and then increased from 1980 to 2020,and that they decreased by 19%in 2020 compared to 1980.Over the same period,the intensity of emissions declined by 46%.Under the TP and MTP scenarios,methane emissions are reduced by 26%and70%,respectively,while emission intensity is reduced by 26%and 68%,respectively.Rice cultivation methane emissions and their intensity have shifted to the east during the period 1980~2020,with the emission gravity center moving to the northeast by 347km and the intensity gravity center moving to the southeast by 411km during this period.Both emissions and intensities decreased in counties in the southern regions,such as Hunan,Hubei,and Jiangxi.Rice cultivation is gradually being replaced in high-intensity regions such as Xinjiang,Shandong,and Henan,which is resulting in declining emissions.Although emissions in northeastern regions have increased,their intensity levels remain relatively low.Water management for rice has the greatest mitigation potential,contributing more than 60%of the total mitigation potential.There is a high mitigation potential in regions with high emissions,such as Hunan,Hubei,Jiangxi,Heilongjiang,and Guangdong,where the average mitigation potential is twice that of other regions.

关 键 词：水稻种植 甲烷 排放强度 减缓潜力 空间重心 

分 类 号：X51[环境科学与工程—环境工程]