参考质量效应下品牌农产品质量、保鲜和营销策略的动态绩效仿真  

Dynamic performance simulation of brand agricultural product quality,preservation,and brand marketing strategies under reference quality effects

作　　者：王翠霞[1] 李雅琴 陈艳 WANG Cuixia;LI Yaqin;CHEN Yan(School of Information Management and Mathematics,Jiangxi University of Finance and Economics,Nanchang 330032,China)

机构地区：[1]江西财经大学信息管理与数学学院,南昌330032

出　　处：《系统工程理论与实践》2025年第2期635-650,共16页Systems Engineering-Theory & Practice

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(71961009,72261013)。

摘　　要：参考质量效应下,农产品的品牌商誉、质量以及市场需求之间存在复杂的动态反馈关系,使得生产、保鲜及品牌营销策略的绩效具有非线性和反直观性.本文构建考虑消费者参考质量效应的区域品牌农产品三级供应链系统动力学模型,运用Vensim DSS软件的内置Powell爬山算法,生成不同情形下生产商产出质量努力、经销商保鲜努力及零售商品牌营销努力水平的最优组合,并基于此设计4种仿真情景,模拟不同努力水平组合下区域品牌商誉、各主体利润的动态演化过程,分析质量、保鲜和营销策略的动态影响机制,以优化供应链的运营策略.结果表明:生产商的质量努力水平是控制系统绩效演化动态的关键决策变量,农产品的品牌商誉及经销商、零售商利润与产出质量高度正相关,但保持高产出质量的努力成本投入会使生产商自身利润受损严重;在参考质量效应影响下,品牌商誉由非均衡动态趋向均衡状态的演化路径充满振荡,且波谷随生产商质量努力水平的降低而下降明显.基于系统动力学建模与仿真,从行为运营的视角研究供应链主体决策的绩效动态,是对当前基于分析模型方法、聚焦均衡控制策略研究的有益补充.There is a complex dynamic feedback relationship between the brand goodwill,quality and market demand of agricultural products under the reference quality effect,which makes the performance of production,preservation,and brand marketing strategies non-linear and counter-intuitive.In this paper,a system dynamics model of a regional brand agricultural product supply chain under consumers’reference quality effects was developed,and the optimal level combinations of farmers’production effort,distributor’s freshness-keeping effort,and retailer’s brand marketing effort in different scenarios were obtained with the Powell hill-climbing optimization algorithm in Vensim DSS software.We designed four simulation scenarios each corresponding to an optimal level combination to simulate the dynamic evolution process of regional brand goodwill and supply chain member profits,and analyze the dynamic influence mechanism of quality,preservation and marketing strategies to optimize the operational strategies of the supply chain.The simulation results show that the level of farmers’planting effort is the key decision variable in controlling the performance evolutionary process of the system,since both of the distributor and the retailer’s profits and brand goodwill of the produce are highly positively correlated with the output quality of agricultural products,but the cost of efforts to maintaining high output quality will seriously damage the profits of farmers themselves.Due to the influence of the reference quality effect,the evolution path of brand reputation from non-equilibrium dynamics to equilibrium is full of oscillations,and the trough decreases significantly with the decrease of the manufacturer’s quality effort level.The context of applying system dynamics modeling and simulating to present the performance dynamics of supply chain decision-making from the perspective of behavioral operations in this paper is a beneficial supplement to current research based on analytical modeling methods and focusing on equ

关 键 词：参考质量效应 区域品牌农产品 质量 品牌商誉 系统动力学 

分 类 号：N949[自然科学总论—系统科学]