大型商场对城市轨道交通进出站客流发生率的影响分析  

Impact Analysis of Large Shopping Malls on Inbound and Outbound Passenger Flow Rates at Urban Rail Transit Stations

作　　者：张笑天 苏成成 王治 叶霞飞[1,2] 覃素馨 ZHANG Xiaotian;SU Chengcheng;WANG Zhi;YE Xiafei;QIN Suxin(Shanghai Key Laboratory of Rail Infrastructure Durability and System Safety,201804,Shanghai,China;Experimental Teaching Center of Transportation Engineering,Tongji University,201804,Shanghai,China;Technical Center of Shanghai Shentong Metro Group Co.,Ltd.,201103,Shanghai,China)

机构地区：[1]上海市轨道交通结构耐久与系统安全重点实验室,上海201804 [2]同济大学道路与交通工程教育部重点实验室,上海201804 [3]上海申通地铁集团有限公司技术中心,上海201103

出　　处：《城市轨道交通研究》2025年第3期45-50,共6页Urban Mass Transit

基　　金：上海申通地铁集团有限公司项目(2244-JS-KY18R002)。

摘　　要：[目的]为揭示大型商场对城市轨道交通车站全日进出站客流量和晚高峰小时出站客流量的影响程度,构建考虑广义商业岗位的城市轨道交通进出站客流预测修正模型,并提高其预测精度。[方法]利用ArcGIS平台绘制城市轨道交通车站影响范围,以此为边界统计城市轨道交通车站影响范围内居住人口规模和就业岗位规模,利用手机信令数据平台分析提取了车站周边商场内商业岗位规模和来访人员规模、车站周边医院内医疗岗位规模和来访人员规模,提出广义商业岗位的概念用于描述顾客对城市轨道交通车站进出站客流量的贡献;分析了广义商业岗位对不同区域的城市轨道交通换乘站、非换乘站进出站客流发生率的影响,开展了城市轨道交通进出站客流发生率与广义商业岗位的单因素方差分析。[结果及结论]用广义商业岗位替代商业岗位作为模型基础参数,有助于提高城市轨道交通进出站客流量预测模型的精度;基于上海市核心区和市区的相关数据对考虑广义商业岗位的客流预测修正模型的标定结果表明,预测模型的拟合优度较高。核心区、市区换乘站因为车站换乘线路较多、车站可达性较高的原因,广义商业岗位对于城市轨道交通换乘站进出站客流发生率的影响在众多因素中并不特别显著。[Objective]It is aimed to reveal the impact of large shopping malls on daily passenger flow and evening peak-hour outbound passenger flow at urban rail transit stations.Based on these findings,a revised passenger flow prediction model for urban rail transit stations,incorporating the concept of generalized commercial jobs is constructed and its prediction accuracy is enhanced.[Method]Using the ArcGIS platform,the influential scopes of urban rail transit stations is delineated to statistically map out the residential population and employment scales within these areas.Mobile signaling data is analyzed to extract the scale of commercial jobs and visitor volumes in nearby malls,as well as medical jobs and visitor volumes in surrounding hospitals.The concept of generalized commercial jobs is introduced to describe the contribution of customer activities to passenger flow at urban rail transit stations.The influence of generalized commercial jobs on the inbound/outbound passenger flow rates of urban rail transit interchange and non-interchange stations in different regions is analyzed.One-way ANOVA(analysis of variance)is conducted to investigate the relationship between inbound/outbound passenger flow rates and generalized commercial jobs.[Result&Conclusion]The analysis results show that replacing conventional commercial jobs with generalized commercial jobs as a fundamental model parameter improves the accuracy of urban rail transit station inbound/outbound passenger flow prediction models.Calibration results of the passenger flow prediction revised model based on data from Shanghai downtown and urban areas demonstrates a high degree of fit.Due to the high accessibility and multiple interchange lines at interchange stations in downtown and urban areas,the influence of generalized commercial jobs on inbound/outbound passenger flow rates at urban rail transit interchange stations is not particularly significant compared to other factors.

关 键 词：城市轨道交通 进出站客流量 进出站客流发生率 广义商业岗位 

分 类 号：U293.13[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理] U231[交通运输工程—道路与铁道工程]