西宁市2015—2022年布鲁菌病流行病学特征及疫情预测  

Epidemiologic feature and epidemic prediction of brucellosis in Xining City from 2015 to 2022

作　　者：吴晶[1] 张洁[2] 史永凯 孙妍兰[1] 王怡[1] 张蕊 丁小津 WU Jing;ZHANG Jie;SHI Yongkai;SUN Yanlan;WANG Yi;ZHANG Rui;DING Xiaojin(Xining Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Xining,Qinghai 810007,China;不详)

机构地区：[1]西宁市疾病预防控制中心,青海西宁810007 [2]自贡市疾病预防控制中心 [3]青海省疾病预防控制中心

出　　处：《医学动物防制》2025年第4期361-364,369,共5页Journal of Medical Pest Control

基　　金：2022年青海省卫生健康系统推广项目(2022-wjtg-03)。

摘　　要：目的了解西宁市布鲁菌病(简称“布病”)的流行特征,探究防控重点地区,预测2023年西宁市布病发病情况并指定预警阈值,为布病防治提供依据。方法采用描述流行病学分析2015—2022年西宁市布鲁菌病流行特征,利用全局空间自相关分析和时空重排扫描,探讨西宁市布鲁菌病空间聚集性特征,采用差分自回归移动平均模型(autoregressive integrated moving average model,ARIMA)预测2023年西宁市布病发病趋势。结果2015—2022年西宁市共报告762例布病病例,年均发病率为3.86/10万,年度变化百分比(annual percent change,APC)=144.25%(95%CI:121.14%~169.83%,P<0.05),发病高峰为6—10月;45~<60岁病例占比最高(47.38%);发病人群职业以农民为主,占(85.30%);时空重排扫描显示,布病的聚集区域在湟源县、湟中区、大通回族土族自治县,发病时间集中在2020年7—12月(RR=5.02,P<0.05)、2021年5—10月(RR=9.19,P<0.05)和2022年6—8月(RR=12.77,P<0.05)。结论2015—2022年西宁市布病疫情呈上升趋势,45~<60岁的男性和从事养殖人员农民为发病重点人群,其中湟源县、湟中区、大通回族土族自治县为重点防控地区。Objective To understand the epidemiological characteristic of brucellosis in Xining City,explore key areas for prevention and control,and forecast the incidence of brucellosis in Xining City in 2023,and specify early warning thresholds,so as to provide a basis for disease prevention and control.Methods Descriptive epidemiology was used to analyze the epidemiological characteristic of brucellosis in Xining City from 2015 to 2022.Global spatial autocorrelation analysis and spatiotemporal rearrangement scan were employed to discuss the spatial clustering characteristics of brucellosis within the region.An autoregressive integrated moving average(ARIMA)model was used to predict the incidence trend of brucellosis in Xining City in 2023.Results A total of 762 cases of brucellosis was reported from 2015 to 2022,with an annual average incidence rate of 3.86/100000,and the annual percent change(APC)was 144.25%(95%CI:121.14%-169.83%,P<0.05).The peak incidence occurred between June and October.Individuals aged 45-<60 years accounted for the highest proportion of cases(47.38%),and farmers constituted the majority of the affected population(85.30%).Spatiotemporal rearrangement scan showed that the cluster area of brucellosis was in Huangyuan County,Huangzhong District,and Datong Hui and Tu Autonomous County,the onset time of the disease was concentrated from July to December 2020(RR=5.02,P<0.05),from May to October 2021(RR=9.19,P<0.05),and from June to August 2022(RR=12.77,P<0.05).Conclusion The epidemic of brucellosis in Xining exhibits an upward trend from 2015 to 2022,with males aged 45-<60 years and farmers identifies as key population for the onset of the disease.Huangyuan County,Huangzhong District,and Datong Hui and Tu Autonomous County as the key prevention and control areas.

关 键 词：西宁市 布鲁菌病 发病率 流行特征 预测 疫情 

分 类 号：R181.3[医药卫生—流行病学] R516.7[医药卫生—公共卫生与预防医学]