基于MaxEnt 模型的沙苑子潜在地理分布研究  

Potential Geographical Distribution of Astragalus complanatus Based on MaxEnt Model

作　　者：蒋礼杰 王鑫钰 邱靖茹 吕玉玲 刘虎岐[2] JIANG Li-jie;WANG Xin-yu;QIU Jing-ru;LYU Yu-ling;LIU Hu-qi(School of Chemistry and Pharmacy,Northwest Agricultural and Forestry University,Yangling 712100,China;School of Life Sciences,Northwest Agricultural and Forestry University,Yangling 712100,China)

机构地区：[1]西北农林科技大学化学与药学院,陕西杨凌712100 [2]西北农林科技大学生命科学学院,陕西杨凌712100

出　　处：《中药材》2024年第4期857-862,共6页Journal of Chinese Medicinal Materials

基　　金：2018年公共卫生服务补助资金专项“全国中药资源普查项目”(财社[2018]43号);2019年医疗服务与保障能力提升补助资金项目“中医药事业传承与发展部分第四次全国中药资源普查项目”(财社[2019]39号)

摘　　要：目的:了解中药材沙苑子现在和未来不同时期气候变化下潜在地理分布及其变化趋势。方法:采用MaxEnt模型、ENM Tools、R语言和地理信息系统(ArcGIS)相结合的方法,预测沙苑子潜在地理分布区域及其变化。结果:MaxEnt模型经过倍频和特征组合参数的优化组合后,其预测精度良好(AUC值为0.9306)。当前气候情景下,沙苑子分布于中国21个省份,东北、华北、西北、河南、江苏、四川等地,在未来SSP1-2.6和SSP5-8.5气候情境下,沙苑子在中国的高适生区、中适生区、低适生区面积均呈增加趋势,其质心向高纬度和高海拔地区迁移,SSP5-8.5质心变动范围最大且迁移轨迹最长。主导沙苑子生长的环境因子分别是年平均气温、最干月份降水量、最湿月份降水量、海拔、土壤pH等。结论:该研究结果可以为我国野生沙苑子药用植物资源的保护和利用以及种植布局等方案的制定提供科学依据。Objective:To study the potential geographical distribution and change trend of Astragalus complanatus under the current and future climate change in different periods.Methods:The MaxEnt model,ENM Tools,R language and geographic information system(ArcGis)were used to predict the potential geographical distribution of Astragalus complanatus and its changes.Results:The MaxEnt model had good prediction accuracy(AUC value was 0.9306)after optimizing the combination of frequency doubling and feature combination parameters.Under the current climate scenario,Astragalus complanatus were distributed in 21 provinces in China,including Northeast China,North China,Northwest China,Henan,Jiangsu,Sichuan.Under the future climate conditions of SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5,the areas of Astragalus complanatus in the high-suitability,medium-suitability and low-suitability regions of China show an increasing trend,and its centroid migrates to the high-latitude and high-altitude regions.The centroid of Astragalus complanatus in SSP5-8.5 shows the largest range of centroid change and the longest migration trajectory.The main environmental factors are average annual temperature,precipitation in driest month,precipitation in wettest month,altitude,soil pH,etc.Conclusion:The results of this study can provide scientific basis for the protection and utilization of medicinal plant resources of wild Astragalus complanatus in China and the formulation of planting layout.

关 键 词：沙苑子 MaxEnt模型 主导环境因子 适生区 

分 类 号：R282.71[医药卫生—中药学]