中国汽车保有量预测研究  

A study on forecasting of China's automobile ownership

作　　者：刘斐齐 LIU Feiqi(CNOOC Refining Co.,LTD.,Beijing 100010,China)

机构地区：[1]中海石油炼化有限责任公司,北京100010

出　　处：《车用能源储运销技术》2024年第5期6-13,共8页

摘　　要：我国经过一段时期的经济和社会持续快速发展以及能源转型的发展趋势,汽车销量近期出现增长速度放缓现象。2018年,中国汽车销量(含出口)终结了自1991年起连续27年的增长态势,同比降幅3.4%。此后,叠加疫情因素的影响,汽车市场发展进入低谷。基于当前市场发展状况,前期有关中国汽车市场的研究预测已与市场的实际发展出现偏差,需要进一步深化研究,将市场实际数据与科学研究方法相融合,调整更新预测结果。本研究以过去20年的汽车市场发展数据为基础,深入分析了乘用车、客车、货车三大类车型的市场特点。通过采用Gompertz方程、弹性系数法等计量经济学方法,对未来10年中国汽车保有量进行了预测,对2030年前中国汽车保有量的变化情况进行了预测。预计到2030年,中国汽车保有量较当前水平将提升32%~43%左右,其中乘用车仍会是支撑汽车保有量增长的主要动力。After a prolonged period of sustained economic and social advancement as well as the trend of energy transition,the growth rate of automobile sales has recently decelerated.In 2018,China's car sales(including exports)brought to an end a 27-year growth streak that started in 1991,registering a 3.4%yearon-year decrease.Subsequently,in combination with the influence of the epidemic,the automotive market plunged into a trough.Based on the current market development status,the previous research predictions regarding China's automotive market have deviated from the actual market development,and further indepth research is requisite to integrate actual market data with scientific research approaches and update the prediction outcomes.This study,founded on the automotive market development data of the past 20 years,undertakes an in-depth analysis of the market characteristics of passenger cars,buses,and trucks.By employing econometric methods such as the Gompertz equation and the elasticity coefficient method,the study forecasts the automobile ownership in China over the next 10 years and the changes in automobile ownership in China before 2030.It is anticipated that by 2030,China’s automobile ownership will rise by 32%to 43%compared to the current level,with passenger cars remaining the primary impetus behind the growth of automobile ownership.

关 键 词：汽车保有量 销量 预测模型 计量经济学方法 

分 类 号：F426[经济管理—产业经济]