中国数字经济与实体经济融合的再测算——来自融合深度的新发现  

Re-measurement of the Integration of China's Digital Economy and Real Economy:New Discoveries from the Depth Integration

作　　者：钞小静[1] 王意萱 王宸威 CHAO Xiaojing;WANG Yixuan;WANG Chenwei(School of Economics and Management,Northwest University,Xi’an,Shanxi 710127,China)

机构地区：[1]西北大学经济管理学院,陕西西安710127

出　　处：《贵州财经大学学报》2025年第2期12-21,共10页Journal of Guizhou University of Finance and Economics

基　　金：教育部人文社会科学重点研究基地重大项目“西部地区数字经济与实体经济的融合路径与政策”(22JJD790063);国家社会科学基金项目“数字经济推动经济高质量发展的机制及路径研究”(编号:21BJL002)。

摘　　要：数字经济与实体经济的深度融合是培育与发展新质生产力的重要路径之一。现有文献大多采用协调度模型、投入产出模型及单一指标法测算中国数实融合深度,无法做到对数实融合系统、全面的表征。文章基于数实融合的理论逻辑,从数字经济实体化与实体经济数字化两个维度构建综合评价指标体系,采用“熵值-TOPSIS”法测度2012—2023年中国整体与省域的数实融合深度,并利用“投影寻踪-模拟退火”法等进行稳健性检验,使用Dagum基尼系数法、Kernel密度估计法等方法刻画其区域差异与时空演变趋势。研究发现:中国数实融合程度总体呈现不断深化的趋势,特别是2017年以后融合程度显著加速;实体经济数字化水平与整体数实融合程度的变动趋势基本一致,而数字经济实体化水平则在2019年以后出现跨越式增长;中国七大区域数实融合深度的差异呈现逐年缩小的趋势,且总体差异的来源为区域间差异;各省份的数实融合发展在空间上存在显著的地理依存性,数实融合水平总体上向上转移的概率高于向下转移的概率,且低水平省份更易受邻接省份数实融合水平的影响发生向上“跃迁”。这些结论可以为加快中国数字经济与实体经济深度融合、培育与发展新质生产力提供数据参考与政策启示。Digital economy integrates with real economy to foster new productive forces.Existing studies use coordination models,input-output models,and single indicators to measure China's digital-physical integration depth,lacking comprehensive representation.This paper constructs an evaluation index system from two dimensions:digital economy materialization and real economy digitization.It uses"entropy-TOPSIS"method to measure China's overall and provincial digital-physical integration depth from 2012 to 2023.Robustness tests are conducted using"projection tracing-simulated annealing"and other methods.Regional differences and trends are characterized using Dagum Gini coefficient and Kernel density estimation.Findings show:China's digital-physical integration deepens,especially post-2017.The digitization of the real economy aligns with overall integration,while digital economy materialization surges post-2019.Regional disparities in integration depth narrow over time,with inter-regional differences as the main source.Spatial autocorrelation exists in provincial integration development,with a higher probability of upward transfer.Low-level provinces are more influenced by neighbors for upward"leap".These conclusions provide data and policy insights for accelerating China's digital-physical integration and developing new productive forces.

关 键 词：数实融合 技术—经济范式 数字经济实体化 实体经济数字化 

分 类 号：F124[经济管理—世界经济]