基于空间计量方法的辽宁省居民死亡率影响因素研究  

Study on influencing factors of mortality in residents of Liaoning Province based on spatial econometrics

作　　者：冯奥[1] 田思淼 孙炜[1] FENG Ao;TIAN Simiao;SUN Wei(Affiliated Zhongshan Hospital of Dalian University,Dalian Liaoning 116001,China)

机构地区：[1]大连大学附属中山医院,辽宁大连116001

出　　处：《卫生软科学》2025年第3期80-84,共5页Soft Science of Health

摘　　要：[目的]探索影响辽宁省居民死亡率因素的空间计量特征,为决策者制定相关发展规划及政策提供参考。[方法]基于2011-2020年辽宁省14个地级市的统计数据,引入空间计量模型,分析死亡率的影响因素及各影响因素的空间溢出效应大小和作用方式。[结果]从直接效应看,人均医疗卫生支出、大气PM2.5浓度与死亡率呈正向关系,系数分别为0.1506与0.6972,且差异有统计学意义。从间接效应看,人均GDP、环境治理费占GDP比例、每千人床位数与死亡率呈负向关系,系数分别为-2.9389、-0.4523与-2.3912,且差异有统计学意义;每千人卫技人员数与死亡率呈正向关系,系数为3.5481,且差异有统计学意义。从总效应看,人均GDP、环境治理费占GDP的比例、每千人床位数与死亡率呈负向关系,系数分别为-3.1334、-0.4739与-2.3962,且差异有统计学意义;人均医疗卫生支出、每千人卫技人员数、城镇化率与死亡率呈正向关系,系数分别为0.5621、3.7791与1.6724,且差异有统计学意义。[结论]经济因素、环境因素、医疗卫生资源配置、城镇化进程、区域间均衡发展是影响居民死亡率的重要因素,且具有溢出效应。进一步提升区域经济发展、改善生存环境和提升医疗服务水平,不仅能降低区域内的死亡率水平,同时会促进相邻区域死亡率水平的降低。Objective To explore the characteristics of spatial econometrics of factors affecting the mortality in residents of Liaoning Province,and to provide the reference for decision-makers to formulate relevant development plans and policies.Methods Based on statistical data of 14 cities in Liaoning Province from 2011 to 2020,a spatial econometrics model was introduced to analyze the influencing factors of mortality and spatial spillover effects of each influencing factor.Results From the perspective of direct effect,health expenditure per capita and atmospheric PM2.5 concentration were positively correlated with mortality,with coefficients of 0.1506 and 0.6972,respectively,and differences were statistically significant.From the perspective of indirect effect,GDP per capita,the proportion of environmental governance fees to GDP,and number of hospital beds per 1000 population were negatively correlated with mortality,with coefficients of-2.9389,-0.4523 and-2.3912,respectively,and the differences were statistically significant.The number of health workers per 1000 population was positively correlated with mortality,with a coefficient of 3.5481,and the difference was statistically significant.From the perspective of total effect,GDP per capita,the proportion of environmental governance fees to GDP,and number of hospital beds per 1000 population were negatively correlated with mortality,with coefficients of-3.1334,-0.4739 and-2.3962,respectively,and the differences were statistically significant.Health expenditure per capita,the number of health workers per 1000 population and urbanization rate were positively correlated with mortality,with coefficients of 0.5621,3.7791 and 1.6724,respectively,and the differences were statistically significant.Conclusions Economic factors,environmental factors,health resource allocation,urbanization and balanced regional development are important factors affecting mortality in residents and have spillover effects.Further enhancing regional economic development,improving the living environm

关 键 词：死亡率 空间计量模型 影响因素 

分 类 号：R821.36[医药卫生—临床医学] R163