人口老龄化与经济发展的协同  

The Synergy Between Population Aging and Economic Development

作　　者：穆怀中[1] MU Huaizhong

机构地区：[1]辽宁大学公共管理学院,辽宁沈阳110036

出　　处：《求索》2025年第1期133-140,206,共9页Seeker

基　　金：国家社科基金重大项目“中国人口老龄化对经济增长影响路径与政策选择”(项目编号:20&ZD077)。

摘　　要：中国式现代化是人口规模巨大的现代化,同时又与人口老龄化重合,由此面临经济发展路径的优化选择。人口老龄化对经济增长的影响具有负向影响和正向影响双重属性,其负向影响主要集中在供给侧,正向影响主要集中在需求侧。在认知上尚不能依据老年人口照料负担加重而感性判定人口老龄化影响是负向的,人口老龄化与经济增长之间具有协同发展属性。依据经济发展与人口老龄化进程相适应原则,要树立积极应对人口老龄化的协同发展理念。积极应对人口老龄化的协同发展路径,在供给侧主要是增加劳动力供给和劳动力技术替代,在需求侧主要是强化养老储蓄和老年期消费的协同替代。从经济增长角度来看,人口老龄化与经济发展的协同遵循“影响—适应—协同”的逻辑递进过程,也就是人口老龄化对经济增长产生影响;同时经济增长也对人口老龄化产生影响并与人口老龄化发展相适应,通过经济增长路径优化,对冲掉人口老龄化的负向影响,实现人口老龄化与经济发展的协同。China's modernization is characterized by a huge population and coincides with population aging,thus facing the optimal choice of economic development path.Based on the principle that economic growth should adapt to the process of population aging,this paper proposes the concept of coordinated development to actively respond to population aging.The oretical analysis shows that:(1)The impact of population aging on economic growth has dual attributes of negative and positive effects,with negative effects mainly concentrated on the supply side and positive effects mainly concentrated on the demand side.In terms of cognition,it is not yet possible to subjectively judge the negative impact of population aging based on the increased burden of elderly care.There is a synergistic development attribute between population aging and economic growth.(2)The synergistic development path of actively responding to population aging involves increasing labor supply and replacing labor technology on the supply side,and coordinating the replacement of retirement savings and elderly consumption on the demand side.(3)The synergistic development of population aging and economic growth is a logical progression process of"influence-adaptation-coordination",which means that population aging has an impact on economic growth,and economic growth also has an impact on population aging.By optimizing the economic growth path,the negative impact of population aging can be offset,and the synergistic development of population aging and economic growth can be achieved.

关 键 词：人口老龄化 经济增长 协同发展 

分 类 号：F124[经济管理—世界经济] C924.24[社会学—人口学]