人工智能、产业融合与产业结构转型升级  

Artificial Intelligence,Industrial Convergence,and the Transformation and Upgrading of China's Industrial Structure

作　　者：潘珊 李剑培 顾乃华 PAN Shan;LI Jian-pei;GU Nai-hua(Institute of Industrial Economics,Jinan University;School of Economics and Trade,Guangdong University of Finance)

机构地区：[1]暨南大学产业经济研究院 [2]广东金融学院经济贸易学院

出　　处：《中国工业经济》2025年第2期23-41,共19页China Industrial Economics

基　　金：国家社会科学基金后期资助项目“供给侧改革与中国经济‘双重’结构转型”(批准号22FJLB009);国家社会科学基金重大项目“粤港澳大湾区产业融合发展的机制与政策研究”(批准号19ZDA079);国家自然科学基金青年项目“中国经济的‘双重’结构转型:基于供给侧改革的理论分析与实证检验”(批准号71703056)。

摘　　要：推进产业智能化、绿色化、融合化,是建设现代化产业体系的重要内涵。推动产业融合发展是推进现代化产业体系建设、加快形成新质生产力的产业基础。生产性服务业所具备的“融合”特质,使其成为中国产业结构转型升级的重要方向。基于跨国数据的分析表明,中国的生产性服务业比重偏低,拉动经济增长的动能还有待释放。作为推动新一轮科技革命和产业变革的战略性通用技术,人工智能技术推动产业发展由分工深化走向相互融合,成为加快产业融合、促进生产性服务业发展的重要途径。本文建立一个包含人工智能和产业融合的多部门动态一般均衡模型,研究发现,当人工智能技术偏向制造业且制造业与生产性服务业替代弹性较低时,人工智能技术会促进制造业与生产性服务业的融合,通过集约边际效应提高生产性服务业的比重。数值模拟结果显示,人工智能技术可以有效促进产业融合和产业结构转型升级。此外,提高新型基础设施投资率、降低不同服务业之间劳动力流动成本等途径可以进一步推动产业融合和加快生产性服务业发展。本文从宏观经济结构视角展示人工智能技术影响产业融合和产业结构转型升级的理论机制,并就如何以人工智能技术促进产业融合和发展生产性服务业提出政策启示。Promoting the intelligentization,greening,and convergence of industries is a fundamental component of building a modern industrial system.Industrial convergence serves as the core foundation for advancing the construction of this system and accelerating the formation of new quality productive forces.The inherent“convergence”characteristic of producer services makes them a key direction for the transformation and upgrading of industrial structures.Cross-national data indicates that China's producer services are underdeveloped.As a strategic general-purpose technology driving the new round of technological revolution and industrial transformation,artificial intelligence(AI)shifts industrial development from deepening specialization to mutual integration,becoming a critical tool for accelerating industrial convergence and promoting the growth of producer services.This paper develops a multi-sector dynamic general equilibrium model incorporating AI and industrial convergence.The findings suggest that when AI technology is biased toward manufacturing and the substitution elasticity between manufacturing and producer services is low,AI promotes the integration of manufacturing and producer services,thereby increasing the share of producer services through intensive marginal effects.Moreover,if the impact of AI on different service sectors is similar and the substitution elasticity between industrial and service goods is low,AI also induces a shift in the consumption structure,where the output share of industrial goods decreases while the output share of service goods increases.This paper uses data from GGDC(2021)to calibrate the model parameters,and the numerical simulation results show that the improvement in AI can facilitate industrial convergence and increase the share of producer services.Sensitivity analysis indicates that as AI's impact on the service sector strengthens,AI continues to promote industrial convergence and the development of producer services.Increasing investment in new infrastructure and redu

关 键 词：人工智能 产业融合 生产性服务业 产业结构转型升级 

分 类 号：F124[经济管理—世界经济]