基于博弈论组合赋权-云模型的河流型水源地环境风险评价研究  

Research on environmental risk assessment of river-type water sources basedon game theory combination weighting method and cloud model

作　　者：姚萱 杨红刚[1] 陈必群 曹阳 YAO Xuan;YANG Honggang;CHEN Biqun;CAO Yang(School of Resources and Environmental Engineering,Wuhan University of Technology,Wuhan 430070;Wuhan Jianlan Environmental Protection Technology Co.,Ltd.,Wuhan 430080)

机构地区：[1]武汉理工大学资源与环境工程学院,武汉430070 [2]武汉建蓝环保科技有限公司,武汉430080

出　　处：《环境科学学报》2025年第2期177-189,共13页Acta Scientiae Circumstantiae

基　　金：长江生态环境保护修复联合研究二期项目(No.2022-LHYJ-02-0506-04)。

摘　　要：河流型水源地的环境风险涉及水资源、水环境、水生态以及人类行为等诸多方面的不确定性.为了客观有效地反映河流型水源地的环境风险状况,从水量、水质、生态经济和管理4个方面选取了19个指标,并将评价标准划分为5个等级,构建了一个多维度的河流型水源地环境风险综合评价指标体系.采用博弈论组合赋权方法计算指标的主客观组合权重,克服了单一权重类型的局限性,并通过云模型全面衡量了风险的模糊性和随机性.以黄石市长江集中式饮用水水源地为例,分析其环境风险水平与主要风险来源.结果显示:2017—2022年,黄石市长江集中式饮用水水源地的主要风险来源于水量和生态经济两个方面,人均水资源短缺、水资源开发水平较高、森林覆盖率偏低、用水效率不高以及生态用水占比较低是构成环境风险的主要因素.该水源地的综合环境风险等级始终维持在Ⅰ级,处于低风险状态.提出的模型有效地反映了河流型水源地的环境风险状况,为识别环境风险来源和增强风险防范能力提供了科学参考.The environmental risks of river-type water sources are characcterized by uncertainty due to the multi-impacts of water quantity and quality,water eco-environment and human behavior.To evaluate the environmental risks of river-type water sources objectively and effectively,a comprehensive multi-dimensional evaluation index system was developed.The system contains 19 indicators from water quantity,water quality,ecological economy,and ecological management,which are classified into five levels.The combination of game theory and weighting method is used to calculate the weights of the indicators,overcoming the limitation of single-weight calculation and quantifying the randomness and ambiguity inherent in risk assessment by the cloud model.Focusing on the centralized drinking water sources of the Yangtze River in Huangshi,Hubei as the research area,this research analyzes the environmental risk level and main risk sources.The results show that from 2017 to 2022,the main risks of the water sources were contributed from water quantity and ecological economy factors.The main factors involve shortages of water resource per capita,high levels of water resource exploitation,low forest coverage,low water use efficiency,and low ecological water use.The comprehensive environmental risk level of these water sources is consistently categorized as levelⅠ,which corresponds to a low-risk status.The proposed model effectively calculates the environmental risk of rivertype water sources,providing scientific reference for identifying the sources of risk and enhancing risk prevention capabilities.

关 键 词：河流型水源地 环境风险评价 博弈论 云模型 不确定性 

分 类 号：X820.4[环境科学与工程—环境工程]