基于公共天气预报的湖北参考作物腾发量预报方法比较与分析  

Comparison and Analysis of ET0 Forecasting Methods in Hubei Province Based on Public Weather Forecast

作　　者：杨怡汀 吴光星 胡旭铧 吴争光 刘路广 陈祖梅 崔远来[1] 罗玉峰[1] YANG Yi-ting;WU Guang-xing;HU Xu-hua;WU Zheng-guang;LIU Lu-guang;CHEN Zu-mei;CUI Yuan-lai;LUO Yu-feng(State key Laboratory of Water Resources Engineering and Manacement,Wuhan University,Wuhan 430072,Hubei Province,China;CEWUD Group Company Limited,Wuhan 430070,Hubei Province,China;Hubei Water Resources Research Institute,Wuhan 430064,Hubei Province,China;Hubei Irrigation Experimentation Centre,Jingmen 448000,Hubei Province,China)

机构地区：[1]武汉大学水资源工程与调度全国重点实验室,湖北武汉430072 [2]中工武大设计集团有限公司,湖北武汉430070 [3]湖北省水利水电科学研究院,湖北武汉430064 [4]湖北省灌溉试验中心站,湖北荆门448000

出　　处：《节水灌溉》2025年第3期51-56,共6页Water Saving Irrigation

基　　金：中工武大设计集团有限公司委托开发项目;国家自然科学基金项目(52379046)。

摘　　要：为寻求比较准确的湖北省未来短期参考作物腾发量(ET0)预报方法,分析了HS模型与PMF模型在ET0预报中的表现。以FAO56-PM公式和18个气象站点的历史气象数据计算的ET0为对照,率定并验证HS模型的准确性。利用天气预报资料,在湖北省各站点进行两种ET0预报模型的适用性评价。结果显示:在不同预见期内,ET0预报值与基准值呈现一致的变化趋势,经过参数率定后,HS模型和PMF模型在18个站点的ET0预报中,相关系数的平均值分别为0.85、0.84,平均的均方根误差分别为0.87、0.87 mm,平均绝对误差的均值分别为0.65、0.64 mm,通过TOPSIS法分析,推荐11个站点采用HS模型进行ET0预报。总体而言,率定后的HS模型在湖北省各站点预报精度较高,建议采用该模型进行湖北省ET0预报为灌溉预报和决策提供依据。To investigate precise forecasting methods of short-term reference evapotranspiration(ET0)in Hubei,this study compares two approaches:the HS model and the PMF model.Based on ET0 calculated by FAO56-PM and historical data from 18 meteorological stations,the HS model was calibrated and validated.Forecasts showed strong alignment with the benchmark,with average r of 0.85 for the HS and 0.84 for the PMF models,and the average MAE of 0.65 mm for the HS and 0.64 mm for the PMF models,and similar RMSE(0.87 mm).The TOPSIS method indicates that the HS model is recommended for ET0 forecasting at 11 stations.Overall,the HS model has higher prediction accuracy across all stations in Hubei Province,making it recommended for forecasting ET0 to support irrigation predictions and decision-making.

关 键 词：参考作物腾发量预报 公共天气预报 HS模型 PMF模型 TOPSIS法 

分 类 号：S161.4[农业科学—农业气象学]