政府审计独立性提升能降低地方债务风险吗?——来自省以下审计机关体制改革的证据  

Can improving audit independence reduce local debt risk?Evidence from the vertical management reform of sub-provincial audit institutions

作　　者：吕炜[1] 周慧君 LV Wei;ZHOU Huijun(Dongbei University of Finance and Economics,Dalian 116025)

机构地区：[1]东北财经大学,辽宁大连116025

出　　处：《财贸研究》2025年第2期1-11,共11页Finance and Trade Research

基　　金：国家自然科学基金重点项目“央地财政关系与财政制度优化研究”(72133001)。

摘　　要：提高政府审计的独立性,有助于充分发挥审计在地方债风险管理中的“免疫系统”作用,然而尚缺乏直接证据支持这一观点。基于2013—2020年我国31个省份的2655个区县数据,在债务规模上综合考虑政府债券和有息城投债两类债务来源,并且以多种财政收入来源量化地方政府的偿债能力,构建更加全面综合反映区县地方债务风险的指标,并以2016年“省以下地方审计机关人财物省级统一管理”试点改革作为准自然实验,利用双重差分方法分析政府审计独立性提升对地方债务风险的影响。研究发现:政府审计独立性提升显著降低了区县地方政府债务风险,改革的治理效应主要是通过抑制债务规模增长来实现风险的降低,人财物改革的力度越大,对地方债务风险的抑制作用就越强。异质性分析显示,在晋升竞争强度大、审计力量弱的地区,改革对地方债务风险的治理效应更强。机制分析表明,审计垂直改革会提高审计效率,促进政府财政透明度增加,进而抑制地方债务风险。这表明,深化审计管理体制垂直改革、加大改革力度、强化审计监督体系是防范化解基层地方债务风险的有效手段。Improving the independence of government audits can help give full play to the role of audit as the“immune system”in local debt risk management,but there is a lack of direct evidence to support this view.Based on the data of 2655 districts and counties in 31 provinces(municipalities)from 2013 to 2020,this paper comprehensively considers the two sources of debt-government bonds and interest-bearing urban investment bonds-to measure the scale of local debt.It also quantifies local governments’debt repayment capacity with multiple sources of fiscal revenue and constructs a more comprehensive indicator to reflect the risks of district/county-level local debt.Using the 2016 pilot reform of“provincial unified management of personnel,finances,and assets for sub-provincial local audit institutions”as a quasi-natural experiment,the study employs the difference-in-differences(DID)method to analyze the impact of enhanced government audit independence on local debt risks.The study finds that enhancing the independence of government audits significantly reduces the debt risks of district/county-level local governments.The governance effect of the reform primarily achieves risk reduction by curbing the growth of debt scale.Furthermore,the greater the intensity of the personnel,finances,and assets reform,the stronger its inhibitory effect on local debt risks.Heterogeneity analysis reveals that the governance effect of the reform on local debt risks is stronger in regions with intense promotion competition and weak audit capacity.Mechanism analysis indicates that the vertical audit reform improves audit efficiency,promotes government fiscal transparency,and thereby curbs local debt risks.This suggests that deepening the vertical reform of the audit management system,increasing the intensity of reforms,and strengthening the audit supervision system are effective measures to prevent and resolve local debt risks at the grassroots level.

关 键 词：政府审计独立性 审计垂直改革 地方债务风险 

分 类 号：F812.5[经济管理—财政学]