双循环背景下市场潜能的就业促进效应及其演化机制研究  

The employment promotion effects and mechanisms of market potential in the context of dual circulation

作　　者：刘修岩[1] 封可欣 LIU Xiuyan;FENG Kexin(Southeast University,Nanjing 211189)

机构地区：[1]东南大学,江苏南京211189

出　　处：《财贸研究》2025年第2期29-43,共15页Finance and Trade Research

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重大项目“新发展格局下长三角一体化大市场研究”(22&ZD066);中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助“双链融合视角下技术集群促进中国企业颠覆式创新的机制与路径研究”(3214002405B3)。

摘　　要：依托国内大循环增强内生动力、联动国内国际市场是落实新发展格局战略部署的重大举措。本文通过FMM法(快速行军法)创建城市对交通时间距离数据集,结合CEIC就业数据从理论和实证层面考察了2002—2017年中国263个地级市市场潜能的就业促进效应及其演化机制。研究表明:各地级市市场潜能的就业促进效应呈现不断增强趋势,且这一效应主要来自国内市场潜能的提升。同时,就业密度的促进作用也不容忽视。交通方式、区域和产业三个维度的异质性检验结果表明,市场潜能提升更有利于铁路提速城市、中西部城市及制造强市的就业增长。以上结论在经过多种稳健性检验后依然得到证实。机制分析表明,提高市场潜能通过促进产业结构变迁、改善劳动力错配与减弱市场分割三大途径促进城市就业增长。基于上述发现,从防范“过度去工业化”、推进深度工业化、放大纵横联通优势、减轻劳动力市场分割、充分利用劳动力错配改善效应等角度,对以国内大循环为主体,国内和国际市场潜能优势共同发力,促进城市就业的稳步增长提出政策建议。Relying on the domestic cycle to enhance endogenous power and linking domestic and international markets are major initiatives to implement the strategic plan of the new development pattern.This paper constructs a city-pair time distance dataset using the Fast Marching Method(FMM)and,combined with CEIC employment data,examines the employment promotion effects of market potential and their evolutionary mechanisms across 263 prefecture-level cities in China from 2002 to 2017,both theoretically and empirically.The study shows that the employment promotion effect of market potential of each prefecture-level city shows an increasing trend,and this promotion effect is mainly brought about by the increase of domestic market potential.Meanwhile,the role of employment density in promoting employmentshould not be neglected.The results of the heterogeneity test in the three dimensions of transport mode,region and industry show that the market potential enhancement is more conducive to the employment growth of cities with railway speed improvements,central and western cities and manufacturing-intensive cities.The above findings remain confirmed after multiple robustness tests.Mechanism analysis shows that increasing market potential promotes urban employment growth through three major ways:promoting industrial structure change,improving labour mismatch and weakening market segmentation.Based on the above findings,this paper puts forward policy recommendations for promoting steady urban employment growth by leveraging the dual advantages of domestic and international market potential under the framework of domestic circulation as the mainstay.The recommendations are based on perspectives such as preventing“over-deindustrialization”,advancing deep industrialization,amplifying the benefits of vertical and horizontal connectivity,reducing labor market segmentation,and fully utilizing the positive effects of labor misallocation improvement.

关 键 词：市场潜能 交通时间 就业增长 双循环 

分 类 号：F124.6[经济管理—世界经济]