《巴黎协定》下第一次全球盘点的进程与成果解析  

Analysis of the process and outcomes of the first global stocktake under the Paris Agreement

作　　者：周亚敏[1,2,3] 潘家华[4] ZHOU Yamin;PAN Jiahua(School of International Politics and Economics,University of Chinese Academy of Social Sciences,Beijing 102488,China;National Institute of International Strategy,Chinese Academy of Social Sciences,Beijing 100007,China;Research Center for APEC and East Asian Cooperation,Chinese Academy of Social Sciences,Beijing 100007,China;Research Center for Sustainable Development(RCSD),Chinese Academy of Social Sciences,Beijing 100732,China)

机构地区：[1]中国社会科学院大学国际政治经济学院,北京102488 [2]中国社会科学院亚太与全球战略研究院,北京100007 [3]中国社会科学院亚太经合组织与东亚合作研究中心,北京100007 [4]中国社会科学院可持续发展研究中心,北京100732

出　　处：《中国人口·资源与环境》2025年第1期17-26,共10页China Population,Resources and Environment

基　　金：国家自然科学基金专项项目“面向碳中和的中国经济转型模式构建研究”(批准号:72140001);国家电网科学技术项目“考虑安全成本内部化的电力市场规制定价理论创新与模型方法研究”(批准号:SGSDJY00JHJS2310102)。

摘　　要：全球盘点是全球气候治理机制的重要组成部分。2023年《巴黎协定》下的第一次全球盘点,明晰国际社会应对气候变化的集体进展并指出弥合差距的路径,但各相关方对其的认识还不够系统全面。鉴于此,该研究采用文本分析法、历史回顾法、时间轴法和博弈论方法,对首次全球盘点的进程和成果进行深入解析。研究发现:①首次全球盘点历经科学强化、技术对话和政治共识3个阶段,历时5年多,其中科学强化阶段所锚定的1.5℃温控目标为此次盘点奠定了总基调。②首次全球盘点将重点聚焦在减缓、适应、执行及支持手段这3个具体领域,充分释放信号作用。③盘点最突出的成果是达成“能源系统转轨别离化石燃料”新共识,为各国2025年更新国家自主贡献目标和国际社会2028年开展第二次全球盘点指明方向。④在围绕全球盘点的博弈中,发达国家、新兴经济体、油气输出性经济体和气候脆弱国家这4类典型利益群体有不同的利益诉求,秉持各异的核心立场,相互掣肘但整体推进盘点进程。⑤盘点成果全面系统,共识多达196条,但针对三大焦点领域的细化目标,并不清晰且不具刚性,需在第二次全球盘点深入强化。首次全球盘点表明全球2050年碳中和的目标进程不可逆转。建议:一方面,中国需结合第一次全球盘点成果强化政策研究,为2025年提交与1.5℃温控目标相一致的2035年国家自主贡献做好准备;另一方面,中国应持续推进以零碳产业优势引领全球气候变化行动的战略方针,不断拓展国家发展权和国际话语权。The global stocktake is an important component of the global climate governance mechanism.The first global stocktake under the Paris Agreement,conducted in 2023,clarified the collective progress of the international community in addressing climate change and pointed out pathways to bridge existing gaps.However,it has not yet been systematically and comprehensively understood by all stakeholders.In view of this,this study adopts textual analysis,historical review,timeline analysis,and game theory methods to analyze the process and outcomes of the first global stocktake in depth.The study finds that:①The first global stocktake went through three stages:scientific enhancement,technical dialogue,and political consensus.Spanning over five years,it reached the final outcome of the UAE Consensus,in which the 1.5℃temperature control target,anchored in the scientific enhancement stage,set the general tone for the stocktake.②The first global stocktake focuses on three specific areas,namely,mitigation,adaptation,and means of implementation and support,aiming to fully release its signaling effect.③The most prominent outcome of the stocktake is the newly established consensus on‘transitioning away from all fossil fuels in energy systems,’which points out the direction for countries to update their nationally determined contributions in 2025 and for the international community to conduct the second global stocktake in 2028.④In the global stocktaking game,developed countries,emerging economies,hydrocarbon-exporting-oriented economies,and climatevulnerable countries—these four typical interest groups have different interests and hold distinct core positions.They constrain each other and yet advance the stocktake process as a whole.⑤The outcomes of the stocktake are comprehensive and systematic,encompassing as many as 196 consensus items.However,the detailed targets for the three major focus areas remain unclear and lack rigidity,necessitating further strengthening in the second global stocktake.The findings of

关 键 词：全球盘点 转轨别离 化石燃料 典型利益群体 

分 类 号：F062.2[经济管理—政治经济学]