新质生产力与产业结构升级——基于政府与市场双视角的研究  

The New Quality Productivity and Industrial Structure Upgrading:A Study Based on the Dual Perspective of Government and Market

作　　者：李子成[1] 王珏 王恒 LI Zicheng;WANG Jue;WANG Heng(School of Economics,Yunnan Minzu University,Kunming 650504,China;School of Economics and Management,Xianyang Normal University,Xianyang 712000,China)

机构地区：[1]云南民族大学经济学院,云南昆明650504 [2]咸阳师范学院经济与管理学院,陕西咸阳712000

出　　处：《西安财经大学学报》2025年第2期16-29,共14页Journal of Xi’an University of Finance and Economics

基　　金：国家社会科学基金面上项目“关中平原城市群城市边缘区生态环境精细化治理研究”(22BGL195);教育部人文社会科学重点研究基地重大项目“乡村振兴背景下黄土高原地区水—能源—粮食统筹发展研究”(22JJD790052);第三次新疆综合科学考察项目“塔里木河流域生态适宜性评估及绿色发展建议”(2022xjkk0305)。

摘　　要：基于2011—2021年中国30个省份的面板数据,运用空间杜宾模型、面板门槛模型探究新质生产力对中国产业结构升级的驱动机制。结果表明:首先,新质生产力发展能够显著推动中国产业结构升级,且在更换被解释变量、空间权重矩阵等稳健性检验中依然显著;其次,新质生产力通过提高财政科技支出和数字创新水平,进而对产业结构升级产生积极影响;异质性检验表明,新质生产力对产业结构升级的影响在东部地区具有正向显著的直接与间接效应,在中部地区仅有直接效应且呈现出积极的促进作用,而在西部与东北地区仅有间接效应较为显著;门槛效应分析表明政府干预具有双重门槛效应,并且随着政府干预程度的提升,新质生产力对产业结构升级的推动作用逐步增强,市场一体化具有单门槛效应,当市场一体化程度低于门槛值时,新质生产力对产业结构升级有显著影响,跨越门槛值时,新质生产力对产业结构升级的促进作用将会减弱。Based on the panel data of 30 provinces in China from 2011 to 2021,we use the spatial Durbin model and the panel threshold model to explore the driving mechanism of new quality productivity on the upgrading of China’s industrial structure.The results show that:firstly,the development of new quality productivity can significantly promote the upgrading of China’s industrial structure,and it is still significant in the robustness test of replacing explained variables and spatial weight matrix;secondly,the new quality productivity exert a positive impact on the upgrading of the industrial structure by increasing government spending on science and technology and digital innovation in cities;the heterogeneity test shows that the impact of new quality productivity on industrial structure upgrading in the eastern region has a positive and significant direct and indirect effects,in the central region only the direct effect shows a positive role in promoting.In contrast,in the west and northeast regions,no significant direct impacts were demonstrated,and only indirect impacts were more significant.Threshold effect analysis shows that government intervention has a double threshold effect,and with the increase in the degree of government intervention,the promotion of the new quality of productivity on the upgrading of industrial structure has been gradually enhanced.Market integration has a single threshold effect,when the degree of market integration is lower than the threshold,the new quality productivity has a significant impact on industrial structure upgrading,and when it crosses the threshold,the promotion effect of new quality productivity on industrial structure upgrading will be weakened.

关 键 词：新质生产力 产业结构升级 政府干预 市场一体化 空间杜宾模型 

分 类 号：F014.1[经济管理—政治经济学] F264