黄河流域城市经济韧性时空分异及影响因素研究  

Spatiotemporal Differentiation and Influencing Factors of Urban Economic Resilience in the Yellow River Basin

作　　者：赵玲[1] 周鑫玥 ZHAO Ling;ZHOU Xinyue(School of Finance and Economics,Qinghai University,Xining 810016,China)

机构地区：[1]青海大学财经学院,青海西宁810016

出　　处：《西安财经大学学报》2025年第2期93-105,共13页Journal of Xi’an University of Finance and Economics

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目“协同发展视角下三江源生态补偿的减贫效应及激励机制研究”(20BMZ149)。

摘　　要：为把握地级市尺度下黄河流域城市经济韧性的时空格局及动态演进趋势,促进黄河流域高质量发展,文章基于2010—2021年黄河流域76个地级市单元的面板数据,借助全局趋势分析、标准差椭圆、Moran’s I指数、Kernel密度等方法揭示黄河流域城市经济韧性的时空演变特征及动态演进趋势,并进一步采用SEM模型对黄河流域城市经济韧性的影响因素进行分解。结果表明:黄河流域城市经济韧性水平整体呈上升趋势,且研究期内下游城市的经济韧性水平均高于上游、中游城市;低经济韧性水平城市具有连片式分布的特点;上游、下游地区城市经济韧性水平的区域内差异具有扩大的趋势,中游地区城市区域内差异具有先缩小后扩大特征。黄河流域城市经济韧性的空间格局在东西方向呈现“U”型分布,而在南北方向呈倒“U”型分布,且重心略向西南方向移动;人力资本水平、城市创新能力、产业结构优化、城市收入水平对黄河流域城市经济韧性水平存在显著正向影响,城镇化及市场规模呈负向影响。In order to grasp the spatio-temporal pattern and dynamic evolution trend of the level of urban economic resilience,and to promote high-quality development,this paper is based on the data of 76 cities in the Yellow River Basin in the period of 2010 to 2021,reveals the characteristics of spatio-temporal evolution with the help of the global trend analysis,standard deviation ellipse,Moran’s I index,etc.,and further examines the trend of its dynamic evolution with the use of the kernel density estimation.The SEM model was further used to discuss the impacting factors.The findings indicate:The level of economic resilience of cities is on an ascending path,and the economic resilience level of downstream cities is higher than that of upstream and midstream cities.Cities with lower levels of economic resilience are characterised by contiguous distribution.The intra-regional differences in the economic resilience levels of cities in the upstream and downstream regions have a tendency to widen,meanwhile,within-region variation in midstream cities is marked by smaller and then widening.In addition,the economic toughness of cities in the upstream,middle reaches and downstream shows different degrees of gradient characteristics,in which the downstream is the highest,the upstream is the second,and the middle reaches is the lowest.The spatial pattern of urban economic resilience is distributed in an inverted U-shape in the north-south direction,with the centre of gravity shifting slightly towards the south-west.The level of human capital,urban innovation capacity,industrial structure optimisation and urban income level have a significant forward direction on the degree of economic resilience,while the urbanisation rate and market size have a negative impact on the level of urban economic resilience in the region.

关 键 词：黄河流域 城市经济 经济韧性 空间误差模型 

分 类 号：F299.274[经济管理—国民经济]