减税降费引致了地方财政压力吗——基于产业结构升级视角  

Have Tax Cuts and Fee Reductions Led to Local Fiscal Pressure?--Based on the Perspective of Industrial Structure Upgrading

作　　者：刘明慧[1] 康芸芸 LIU Minghui;KANG Yunyun(School of Public Finance and Taxation,Northeast University of Finance and Economics,Dalian 116025,China)

机构地区：[1]东北财经大学财政税务学院,辽宁大连116025

出　　处：《经济与管理评论》2025年第2期57-69,共13页Review of Economy and Management

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目“小微企业纾困解难减税政策:效果评估、政策协同与优化设计”(72373017)。

摘　　要：减税降费是深化供给侧结构性改革,推动经济高质量发展的重要举措。基于2011-2021年我国229个地级市面板数据,实证分析减税降费对地方财政压力的影响及其作用机制。研究发现:减税降费与地方财政压力之间存在U型关系;机制分析发现,产业结构合理化和产业结构高级化会影响两者之间的平衡点,且正向调节减税降费对地方财政压力的减轻效应;异质性分析表明,产业结构合理化负向调节中部地区减税降费对地方财政压力的加剧效应,产业结构高级化正向调节东部地区减税降费对地方财政压力的加剧效应,且正向调节中部地区减税降费对地方财政压力的减缓效应。Reducing taxes and fees is an important measure to deepen the supply-side structural reform and promote high-quality economic development.Based on the panel data of 229 prefecture-level cities in China from 2011 to 2021,we empirically analyze the impact of tax and fee reduction on local fiscal pressure and its impact mechanism.The study finds that there is a U-shaped relationship between tax and fee reduction and local fiscal pressure;mechanism analysis finds that industrial structure rationalization and industrial structure advancement affect the equilibrium point between the two,and positively regulate the mitigating effect of tax and fee reduction on local fiscal pressure;heterogeneity analysis shows that industrial structure rationalization negatively regulates the exacerbating effect of tax and fee reduction on local fiscal pressure in the central region,and industrial structure advancement positively regulates the exacerbating effect of tax and fee reduction on local fiscal pressure in the eastern region and positively regulates the slowing effect of tax and fee reduction on local financial pressure in the central region.

关 键 词：减税降费 地方财政压力 产业结构升级 

分 类 号：F812[经济管理—财政学]