产业政策是否提升了制造业产业链自主可控能力?——基于《中国制造2025》的准自然实验  

Does Industrial Policy Enhance the Autonomous Controllability of the Manufacturing Industry Chain?--A Quasi-Natural Experiment Based on"Made in China 2025"

作　　者：李健 孟纹羽[1] 公雪 LI Jian;MENG Wenyu;GONG Xue(School of Finance,Shandong University of Finance and Economics,Jinan 250002,China)

机构地区：[1]山东财经大学金融学院,山东济南250002

出　　处：《经济与管理评论》2025年第2期150-160,共11页Review of Economy and Management

基　　金：山东省社会科学规划研究项目“企业数字化提升产业链供应链现代化水平的机制与路径研究”(23DJJJ12)。

摘　　要：提高产业链自主可控能力已成为当前我国经济安全和高质量发展的重要议题。基于2015年国务院颁布的《中国制造2025》作为产业政策的准自然实验,以2002-2020年中国制造业产业链面板数据为研究样本,实证检验了产业政策对产业链自主可控能力的影响。研究结果发现,《中国制造2025》的颁布实施能够有效提升制造业产业链自主可控能力,这一结论在经过平行趋势检验等一系列稳健性检验后依然成立。机制分析表明,《中国制造2025》会通过创新效应、竞争效应以及资源效应提升产业链自主可控能力。异质性检验发现,《中国制造2025》对资本技术型、国外供给依赖度较高和盈利能力较强的产业链的政策效应更为明显。Improving the autonomous controllability of industrial chain has become an important issue for China's economic security and high-quality development at present.Based on the Made in China 2025 promulgated by the State Council in 2015 as a quasi-natural experiment of industrial policy,the impact of industrial policy on the autonomous controllability of industrial chain is empirically examined with the panel data of China's manufacturing industry chain from 2002 to 2020 as the research sample.The results of the study find that the promulgation and implementation of Made in China 2025 can effectively enhance the autonomous controllability of the manufacturing industry chain,and this conclusion still holds after a series of robustness tests such as the parallel trend test.The mechanism analysis shows that Made in China 2025 enhances the autonomous controllability of the industrial chain through the innovation effect,the competition effect,and the resource effect.The heterogeneity test finds that the policy effect of Made in China 2025 is more pronounced for capital-technology-based,higher foreign supply dependence and more profitable industrial chains.

关 键 词：《中国制造2025》 产业链 创新效应 竞争效应 资源效应 

分 类 号：F426[经济管理—产业经济]