2012年以来长江流域水量分配河流径流量变化趋势分析  

Trends of Runoff Changes in the Yangtze River Basin for Water Allocation Since 2012

作　　者：熊明 潘诗涵 XIONG Ming;PAN Shi-han(Bureau of Hydrology,Changjiang Water Resources Commission,Wuhan 430010,China)

机构地区：[1]长江水利委员会水文局,武汉430010

出　　处：《长江科学院院报》2025年第3期1-8,共8页Journal of Changjiang River Scientific Research Institute

基　　金：国家重点研发计划项目(2022YFC3204506);水利部重大科技项目(SKS-2022038)。

摘　　要：变化环境将导致江河水量发生变化,厘清水量变化趋势是开展流域水资源管理的先导性工作。利用长江流域23条水量分配河流的实测径流量数据资料,对主要水量分配河流的年水量变化趋势、月水量分布趋势和各省(直辖市)出境水量变化趋势进行了分析。结果表明:2012年以来,长江流域的水量分配河流年水量总体保持稳定,在2020年呈现出上升趋势,之后发生了由丰水期向偏枯水期的显著转变;各水量分配河流的月径流量显著呈现单峰型,但全年水量在逐渐向非汛期集中;各省(直辖市)出境水量呈现多次枯丰交替的演变趋势,总体呈现震荡上升的趋势,在2020年达到峰值,之后由丰转枯,2022年出境水量持续下降并延续至今;贵州和湖南年总满足程度呈下降趋势、湖北居后。The changing environment alters river water quantity.Scientifically clarifying the change trend of water quantity is fundamental for water resources management in river basins.This paper focuses on 23 rivers for water allocation in the Yangtze River Basin.Utilizing measured runoff data,we analyzed the annual and monthly flow trends of major rivers and the change trends of outbound flow across different provinces within the basin.Results indicate that since 2012,the annual water volume of rivers for water allocation in the Yangtze River Basin has remained stable with an upward trend in 2020,followed by a significant shift from wet period to moderately dry period.The monthly runoff of each river exhibited an obvious unimodal pattern,yet the annual water volume gradually concentrated towards non-flood season.The outbound water volume across provinces in the basin showed multiple alternations between dry and wet seasons,generally presenting a fluctuating upward trend that peaked in 2020.After that,the outbound water volume across provinces continuously declined to the present state.The annual overall compliance rate of Guizhou and Hunan showed a downward trend,while Hubei followed behind.

关 键 词：水量分配 最小二乘线性回归 径流量 出境水量 年总满足程度 

分 类 号：P333[天文地球—水文科学]