金沙江流域降水结构演变及非平稳性特征  

Evolution and Non-stationarity of Precipitation Structure in the Jinsha River Basin

作　　者：朱玲慧 关颖慧 ZHU Ling-hui;GUAN Ying-hui(School of Soil and Water Conservation,Beijing Forestry University,Beijing 100083,China)

机构地区：[1]北京林业大学水土保持学院,北京100083

出　　处：《长江科学院院报》2025年第3期50-58,共9页Journal of Changjiang River Scientific Research Institute

基　　金：“十四五”国家重点研发计划项目(2022YFF1302900);国家自然科学基金项目(41601279)。

摘　　要：为了解区域水循环的变异规律,以金沙江流域为研究对象,基于1960—2021年50个气象站点的日降水数据,采用Mann-Kendall非参数检验和Pettitt检验探讨了金沙江流域总降水量、极端降水量和不同等级降水事件的时空演变特征和非平稳性。结果表明:①金沙江流域总降水量变化趋势不明显,但极端降水量以2.67 mm/(10 a)的速率上升(P<0.05);且总降水量和极端降水量均具有较为明显的非平稳性特征。②金沙江流域以小雨、中雨、大雨3种等级降水事件为主,发生率合计高达94%,降水贡献率为70%,成为流域总降水量的贡献主体。③随降水等级的增加,降水发生率和贡献率的峰值中心均呈现出由北往南逐渐转移的空间格局。④小雨发生率和贡献率呈显著下降趋势,中雨及以上等级降水事件的发生率以及大暴雨的贡献率均呈显著上升趋势(P<0.05)。⑤降水发生率相比贡献率呈现出更明显的非平稳性特征,位于金沙江下段和雅砻江流域的站点的非平稳性最为显著。以上研究表明,1960—2021年金沙江流域降水结构发生了显著变化,区域内强降水事件增多、弱降水事件趋于减少,未来需要科学地调度与管理当地水资源。The investigation of the evolution and non-stationarity of precipitation structures is essential for understanding regional water cycle variations.Based on daily precipitation data from 50 meteorological stations from 1960 to 2021 in the Jinsha River Basin,we analyzed the spatiotemporal evolution and non-stationarity of total precipitation,extreme precipitation,and precipitation events of various intensities by using the Mann-Kendall non-parametric test and the Pettitt test.Results demonstrate that:1)The trend in total precipitation in the Jinsha River Basin was not significant,but extreme precipitation increased at a rate of 2.67 mm/decade(P<0.05).Both total and extreme precipitation exhibited evident non-stationarity.2)Light,moderate,and heavy rainfall predominated in the Jinsha River basin,with an overall incidence rate of 94%and a contribution rate of 70%to total precipitation.3)As precipitation intensity increased,the peak centers of incidence and contribution rate shifted gradually from north to south.4)The incidence and contribution rate of light rainfall showed a significant downward trend,while the incidence rate of moderate and higher-grade precipitation events and the contribution rate of heavy rainfall exhibit significant upward trends(P<0.05).5)Compared to the contribution rate,the incidence of precipitation displayed more pronounced non-stationarity,particularly in stations located in the lower section of the Jinsha River and the Yalong River Basin.These findings indicate significant changes in the precipitation structure of the Jinsha River Basin from 1960 to 2021,characterized by an increase in heavy precipitation and a decrease in light precipitation.Therefore,scientific allocation and management of local water resources are necessary in the future.

关 键 词：降水结构 非平稳性 Mann-Kendall非参数检验 Pettitt检验 降水发生率 降水贡献率 金沙江流域 

分 类 号：TV125[水利工程—水文学及水资源]