城市旅游经济的高铁效应及其机理研究  

Study on the Effect and Mechanism of High-Speed Rail in Urban Tourism Economy

作　　者：徐玉萍[1] 董晓梅 王宗宇 Xu Yuping;Dong Xiaomei;Wang Zongyu(School of Transportation Engineering,East China Jiaotong University,Nanchang 330013,China)

机构地区：[1]华东交通大学交通运输工程学院,江西南昌330013

出　　处：《华东交通大学学报》2025年第1期61-72,共12页Journal of East China Jiaotong University

基　　金：2021年江西省社会科学规划项目(22YJ17)。

摘　　要：研究沪昆高铁2007—2019年对沿线城市旅游经济的影响及其作用机制。首先,采用多期双重差分法,评估了高铁开通对沿线城市旅游经济发展的促进效应;其次,通过动态效应模型,探讨了高铁建设产生的长期经济效应,结果显示该效应持续存在;最后,通过中介效应模型和Bootstrap检验分析了高铁的作用机制,发现旅游科技创新在高铁推动旅游经济中的中介效应占比最高,优于旅游产业结构和交通通达度。结果表明,高铁开通对沿线城市的旅游经济影响正向且持久,随着建设周期的推移,旅游科技创新逐渐成为实现高质量旅游经济发展的关键途径。This paper studies the impact of Shanghai—Kunming high-speed railway on the tourism economy of cities along the line from 2007 to 2019 and its mechanism.Firstly,a multi-period double-difference method was used to assess the promotion effect of the opening of high-speed rail on the tourism economic development of cit-ies along the route.Secondly,through the dynamic effect model,the long-term economic effect of high-speed rail construction is discussed,and the results show that the effect persists.Finally,the intermediary effect model and Bootstrap test were used to analyze the mechanism of high-speed rail,and it was found that tourism scientif-ic and technological innovation had the highest proportion of intermediary effect in promoting tourism economy by high-speed rail,which was superior to tourism industry structure and traffic development.The overall results show that the opening of high-speed rail has a positive and lasting impact on the tourism economy of the cities along the line.With the passage of the construction cycle,tourism scientific and technological innovation has gradually become a key way to achieving high-quality tourism economic development.

关 键 词：高铁 旅游经济 长期效应 作用机制 科技创新 

分 类 号：U293[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]