人口数量红利、人口质量红利与城市经济韧性  

Demographic dividend,human capital dividend and urban economic resilience

作　　者：何雄浪[1] 王诗语 HE Xionglang;WANG Shiyu(School of Economics,Southwest Minzu University,Chengdu 610225,P.R.China)

机构地区：[1]西南民族大学经济学院,四川成都610225

出　　处：《重庆大学学报(社会科学版)》2025年第1期46-62,共17页Journal of Chongqing University(Social Science Edition)

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目“环境约束下长江经济带城市群产业联动高质量发展研究”(21BJL045);西南民族大学中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助“人口数量红利、人口质量红利与城市经济韧性研究”(2024SYJSCX57)。

摘　　要：人口是国家、社会、民族发展的基础性、长期性和战略性要素,合理的人口分布、高素质的人力资本、充裕的适龄劳动人口将形成有利于经济高速增长的投资和消费局面,创造出人口机会窗口,从而提升城市承担风险和恢复经济的能力。当前,我国人口正经历从总量持续增加到持续减少、素质由受教育水平总体偏低和短寿命向高等教育大众化和长寿化转变的阶段。文章在讨论人口数量红利、人口质量红利对城市经济韧性影响内在机理的基础上,运用全国272个城市2010—2021年的面板数据,就人口数量红利、人口质量红利对城市经济韧性的直接影响与间接影响进行了实证检验。研究发现,人口质量红利能够显著增强城市经济韧性,人口数量红利的影响效应则不明显;城市异质性检验结果显示,人口数量红利的影响效应不存在明显的城市异质性特征,且对任何一类城市的经济韧性提升作用均不显著。而人口质量红利对城市经济韧性的提升作用在“胡焕庸线”东南片区的城市、内陆城市以及经济发展水平相对较低的城市更明显,对其余城市的影响效应则较弱;作用机制检验结果表明,信息基础设施建设有效增强了人口质量利用效率对城市经济韧性的提升作用,而交通基础设施建设带来的影响则不明显,甚至有削弱人口质量利用效率提升城市经济韧性的趋势;同时,劳动生产率在人口质量利用效率对城市经济韧性影响中存在显著的中介作用。进一步研究发现,人口集聚在人口质量利用效率对城市经济韧性的影响中存在门槛效应,迈过门槛值以后,人口质量利用效率对城市经济韧性的正向影响作用会减弱。基于上述研究结论,文章认为需要通过加强公共卫生体系建设,持续优化医疗卫生资源布局,全面提升医疗卫生服务能力;加强信息基础设施建设并推进其向西部等边疆地�Population is a fundamental,long-term and strategic element for the development of the country,society and nation.Reasonable population distribution,high-quality human capital,and abundant working-age population will form a situation conducive to the investment and consumption of high-speed economic growth,create a demographic window of opportunity,and enhance the city’s ability to bear risks and restore the economy.Currently,China’s population is experiencing a transition from a continuous increase in the total amount of population to a continuous decrease,and the quality of the population is changing from the overall low level of education and short life expectancy to the massification of higher education and longevity.On the basis of discussing the intrinsic mechanism of the impact of the demographic dividend and human capital dividend on urban economic resilience,this paper uses the panel data of 272 cities in the period of 2010-2021,and makes an empirical analysis of the direct and indirect effects of demographic dividend and human capital dividend on urban economic resilience.The study finds that human capital dividend can significantly enhance urban economic resilience,while the effect of the demographic dividend is not obvious.The results of the heterogeneity test show that there is no obvious urban heterogeneity in the impact of demographic dividend,and the economic resilience enhancement of any type of cities is not prominent.While the effect of human capital dividend on the enhancement of urban economic resilience is more obvious in the cities in the southeast area of Hu Huanyong line,inland cities,and cities with relatively low levels of economic development,and the effect on the rest of the cities is weaker.The results of the test of the mechanism of the role show that the construction of information infrastructure effectively improves the enhancement of quality of population utilization efficiency on urban economic resilience,while the effect brought by the construction of transportation infrast

关 键 词：人口数量红利 人口质量红利 城市经济韧性 异质性人力资本 

分 类 号：F061.5[经济管理—政治经济学] F124[社会学—人口学] F299.2C924.2