金融改革政策对城市经济韧性的影响研究--基于国家金融改革试验区设立的准自然实验  

Research on the impact of financial reform policies on urban economic resilience:A quasi-natural experiment based on the establishment of the national financial reform experimental zone

作　　者：李晓龙 袁帅强 LI Xiaolong;YUAN Shuaiqiang(College of Big Data Application and Economics,Guizhou University of Finance and Economics,Guiyang 550025,P.R.China)

机构地区：[1]贵州财经大学大数据应用与经济学院,贵州贵阳550025

出　　处：《重庆大学学报(社会科学版)》2025年第1期63-78,共16页Journal of Chongqing University(Social Science Edition)

基　　金：国家社会科学基金青年项目“数字普惠金融缓解城乡资本错配的机理、效应与路径研究”(21CJY004)。

摘　　要：习近平总书记在党的二十大报告中对新时代城市建设工作作出重大战略部署,指出要打造宜居、韧性、智慧城市,建立高质量的城市生态系统和安全系统。经济韧性是经济体维护经济安全进而实现经济可持续发展的关键能力,在建设“韧性城市”、维护城市经济安全等环节中起到关键作用。作为中国金融改革的抓手,国家金融改革试验区有利于强化金融服务实体经济能力、防范化解金融风险,在提升经济韧性方面发挥着重要作用,对于建设“韧性城市”以及中国经济实现持续稳定健康发展具有重要意义。文章将国家金融改革试验区设立视作准自然实验,尝试将金融改革政策与城市经济韧性纳入同一分析框架,基于2011—2020年中国277个地级城市面板数据,采用多时点双重差分模型实证检验金融改革政策对城市经济韧性的影响及其作用机制,并进一步讨论金融改革政策对不同规模、不同地理区位城市的政策效果差异。研究结果表明:金融改革政策显著提升了城市经济韧性,这一结论在考虑智慧城市建设政策、创新型城市试点政策以及低碳城市试点政策等的叠加影响后依然成立;平行趋势检验、安慰剂检验、内生性处理、更换被解释变量以及变更样本时间区间等稳健性检验进一步证实了结论的可靠性;机制检验表明,金融改革政策对城市经济韧性的政策效果主要通过增强信贷可得性和提高资本配置效率来实现;从异质性角度来看,相比于规模较大城市与南方城市,金融改革政策对规模较小城市和北方城市的政策效果更强。因此,文章建议建设更多特色鲜明、功能完备的金融改革试验区,进一步扩大金融改革试验区辐射范围,带动试点城市及周边城市经济韧性提升;建立增强信贷可得性、提高资本配置效率的长效机制,借助行政手段和财政手段,充分发挥信贷可得性以In the report of the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China,General Secretary Xi Jinping made a major strategic plan for urban construction in the new era,pointing out that it is necessary to build livable,resilient and smart cities,and establish high-quality urban ecosystems and safety systems.Economic resilience is the key ability of an economy to maintain economic security and achieve sustainable economic development.It plays an important role in building resilient city and maintaining urban economic security.As a key link in China’s financial reform,the national pilot zone for financial reform is conducive to strengthening the ability that finance serves real economy and forestalling financial risks,and plays an important role in improving economic resilience.It also has great significance for building the resilient city and achieving sustained,stable and healthy development of China’s economy.This paper regards the establishment of the national pilot zone for financial reform as a quasi-natural experiment,and attempts to incorporate financial reform policy and urban economic resilience into one analytical framework.Based on the panel data of 277 prefecture-level cities in China from 2011 to 2020,this paper uses the multi-period DID model to examine the impact and its mechanism of financial reform policy on urban economic resilience.At the same time,this paper further discusses the differences in the effects of financial reform policy on cities of different sizes and different geographical location.The results show that the financial reform policy has significantly improved the urban economic resilience,and the conclusion is still valid after considering the superposed impact about the policy of smart city construction,innovative city pilot and low-carbon city.Robustness tests such as parallel trend test,placebo test,treatment of endogeneity,replacement of explanatory variables and change time window further confirm the reliability of the conclusions.Mechanism test shows that the policy ef

关 键 词：金融改革政策 城市经济韧性 国家金融改革试验区 双重差分模型 信贷可得性 资本配置效率 

分 类 号：F832[经济管理—金融学] F124