基于区域自动站降水数据的厦门暴雨过程空间划分及强度评估研究  

Spatial Classification and Intensity Assessment of Heavy Rainfalls Based on Precipitation Data of Automatic Weather Stations in Xiamen

作　　者：池艳珍 吴伟杰 王彦明 郑伟鹏[3,4,5] CHI Yanzhen;WU Weijie;WANG Yanming;ZHENG Weipeng(Xiamen Key Laboratory of Strait Meteorology,Xiamen 361012;Xiamen Meteorological Service Center,Xiamen 361012;Earth System Numerical Simulation Science Center,Institute of Atmospheric Physics,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100029;College of Earth and Planetary Sciences,University of Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100049;State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics,Institute of Atmospheric Physics,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100029)

机构地区：[1]厦门市海峡气象开放重点实验室,厦门361012 [2]厦门市气象服务中心,厦门361012 [3]中国科学院大气物理研究所地球系统数值模拟科学中心,北京100029 [4]中国科学院大学地球与行星科学学院,北京100049 [5]中国科学院大气物理研究所大气科学和地球流体力学数值模拟国家重点实验室(LASG),北京100029

出　　处：《大气科学》2025年第1期123-137,共15页Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences

基　　金：福建省自然科学基金2021J01465;厦门市社会发展领域指导项目3502Z20214ZD4012。

摘　　要：区域自动气象站的广泛应用极大地提高了当前气象监测的覆盖面和精密度,能够为中小尺度灾害性天气监测预警和区域气象服务、气候分析等科研和业务应用提供重要的数据支撑。本文基于2015~2021年厦门市国家气象站和区域自动气象站逐日降水资料,对厦门市暴雨空间范围、强度和天气背景等进行分析,得到如下主要结论:(1)基于各区观测站点的面积权重,研制了暴雨过程空间范围划分指标,根据过程日最大值将暴雨过程划分为局地暴雨、部分暴雨、大部暴雨及全域暴雨;综合考虑评估因子之间的独立性及站点非均匀分布,基于不同量级暴雨站数和致灾影响,研制了暴雨过程强度评估指标,利用百分位法确定暴雨过程强度等级,实现暴雨过程空间范围和强度的紧密关联。(2)受山、海、湾、城地形地貌特点影响,厦门市降水的区域非均匀、局地性特点突出,平均年降水量、暴雨频次分布呈现从沿海向内陆递增,暴雨频次与地形的分布密切相关。(3)2015~2021年期间,共出现局地、部分、大部及全域暴雨过程106、37、16和5场;各月均出现暴雨过程,但集中于主汛期5~9月,以6月和8月为最多;164场暴雨过程包括特强、强、较强和一般强度分别为8、24、33和99场,总强度和平均强度均以2016年居首位、2020年最弱,8场特强暴雨的空间范围均在大部以上,而99场一般暴雨均为局地暴雨。(4)部分暴雨以上过程的典型影响系统包括冷空气活动、台风等热带低值系统、偏南气流、热带辐合带北抬、低层切变线及强对流等,大部以上特别是全域暴雨则主要由冷空气活动及台风(含热带低压)造成。在简述大部以上暴雨类型天气背景基础上,对2015年12月9日的罕见冬季全域特强暴雨进行了详细分析。本文所得结果可为开展监测评估、预报预警和精细化气象服务提供参考。The widespread use of automatic weather stations has significantly improved the accuracy of meteorological monitoring,providing critical support for various applications,including forecasting and warning,meteorological services,climate analysis,and scientific research.This paper delves into an in-depth analysis based on the daily precipitation data collected from both national and automatic weather stations between 2015 and 2021.It explores the multi-scale spatial and temporal distribution of precipitation,as well as the characteristics of heavy rainfall in terms of spatial categorization and intensity,accompanied by a brief overview of the relevant weather backgrounds.The study yields several key findings:(1)A novel spatial classification index for heavy rainfall has been developed,which categorizes rainfall into four distinct types:local,partial,wide-range,and territory-wide.This classification considers the independence of assessment factors and the non-uniform distribution of rainstorm stations using area-density weights.Additionally,an assessment index for heavy rainfall intensity has been developed,considering the number of rainstorm stations and the disaster-causing effects of different rainfall magnitudes.By using the percentile method to determine the intensity grade of heavy rainfall,the spatial range and intensity of heavy rainfall are closely connected.(2)The city of Xiamen exhibits significant regional heterogeneity in precipitation,largely influenced by its unique topographic and geomorphological characteristics,including mountains,seas,bays,and urban areas.Notably,the mean annual precipitation and frequency of heavy rainfall tend to increase gradually from the coast to inland.Moreover,the occurrence of rainstorms is intricately linked to the topographical distribution.(3)Between 2015 and 2021,Xiamen experienced a total of 106,37,16,and 5 rainstorms categorized under the aforementioned classifications,respectively.Heavy rainfall occurred every month but was particularly concentrated in the main floo

关 键 词：暴雨过程 区域自动气象站 空间类型 强度评估 

分 类 号：P467[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]