京津冀地区2021年2月一次极端升温过程成因及可预报性分析  

Mechanism and Predictability of An Extreme Temperature Rising Event of February 2021 in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei

作　　者：胡艺 符娇兰 胡宁 陶亦为 苗芮 HU Yi;FU Jiaolan;HU Ning;TAO Yiwei;MIAO Rui(National Meteorological Centre,Beijing 100081;Tianjin Institute of Meteorological Sciences,Tianjin 300074)

机构地区：[1]国家气象中心,北京100081 [2]天津市气象科学研究所,天津300074

出　　处：《大气科学》2025年第1期197-210,共14页Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences

基　　金：国家重点研发计划项目2021YFC3000903;中国气象局创新发展专项CXFZ2022J013。

摘　　要：本文基于多源观测、ERA5再分析数据以及业务模式预报资料分析了2021年2月17~21日京津冀地区一次异常升温过程的极端性特征、发生发展机制及模式可预报性问题。结果表明:此次极端升温过程京津冀地区90%以上站点突破2月历史同期极值,日最高气温和最低气温过程升温幅度均超过24°C,期间河北南部日最高气温达到28°C。前期极涡偏弱以及“两槽一脊”形势的稳定维持为异常升温提供了有利条件,定量估算了影响升温的各项因子,结果显示:水平平流项和垂直运动项在整个升温过程中贡献占比均大,非绝热加热项贡献相对较小。中短期时效内,美国国家海洋和大气管理局(NOAA)国家环境预报中心预报数据(NCEP)确定性预报和中央气象台智能网格预报对此次极端升温过程整体表现较好,特别是36小时时效对平原地区温度预报准确;欧洲中期天气预报中心预报数据(EC)和中国气象局全球同化预报系统(CMA-GFS)集合预报系统的控制预报对500 hPa位势高度场有效预报技巧上限分别是9天和5天,两家模式的集合平均比控制预报可预报时效长1~2天。两周以上,月动力模式预报的环流形势可参考性差。Based on multi source observations,ERA5 high-resolution reanalysis data,and operational model forecast data,this paper analyzes the extreme characteristics,occurrence,and development mechanisms and predictability of an abnormal temperature increase event in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region from February 17 to 21,2021.The results indicate that during this period,more than 90%of the stations in the region exceeded the historical February temperature extremes.Daily maximum and minimum temperatures exceeded 24°C,with the southern Hebei region recording a peak temperature of 28°C.Key contributing factors included a weakened polar vortex in the early stages and the persistent“-+-”circulation pattern,which provided favorable conditions for extreme warming.The results show that the advection and perpendicular terms primarily contributed to the event,whereas the nonadiabatic heating term had minimal impact.Short-and medium-term forecasts performed effectively for this abnormal warming event.Specifically,the National Centers for Environment Prediction(NCEP)and intelligent grid deterministic forecasts showed high accuracy within 36 h,especially for plain areas.The control forecasts by European Center for Medium Range Weather Forecasts(ECMWF)and China Meteorology Administration(CMA)global ensemble members demonstrated skill in predicting the 500-hPa geopotential height 9 and 5 days in advance,respectively.Furthermore,the predictability limit of the ensemble average forecast extended 1-2 days beyond the control forecast.However,for periods extending beyond 2 weeks,the reference provided by the ensemble monthly dynamic extended model for the circulation situation was notably less reliable.

关 键 词：极端升温 暖平流 下沉增温 可预报性 

分 类 号：P458.3[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]